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COVID-19 Updates and Data - CFW and UTSouthwesternCOVID-19 Update May 11, 2021 Brandon Scott Bennett, Public Health Officer/Code Compliance Director Tarrant County COVID-19 Statistics Metric Last Council Presentation (04/20/21) Today’s Presentation (05/11/21) Percentage (Inc./Dec) Total Number of Cases 254,590 258,423 +2% New Cases -7 Day Total 1,238 1,047 -15% Deaths 3,374 3,456 +2% Vaccine –1st Shot 508,951 (24%)578,826 (28%)*+14% Fully Vaccinated 319,580 (15%)437,690 (21%)*+37% *Vaccine information updated every Wednesday (above information from 05/05/21) *Percentage of Tarrant County residents who have received the vaccine Global Confirmed: 158,446,875 Global Deaths: 3,295,405 Source: John’s Hopkins University (05/10/21) U.S. Confirmed: 32,711,361 U.S. Deaths: 581,791 Source: John’s Hopkins University (05/10/21) 2 COVID-19 Current Risk Status Key Public Health Metrics Are We Meeting Objective Reproduction Number (R Naught) Less Than 1.0 Yes Sustained or declining virus numbers over 14 days Yes Sufficient/available hospital beds/resources Yes Widely available viral testing and lab capacity Yes Effective Contact Tracing to contain viral spread Yes Available Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)Yes COVID-19 Vaccines Yes 3 COVID Vaccine Administered 1,199,789 Total Doses Administered •998,670 Tarrant County Residents (83%) •201,119 Out of County Residents (17%) •378,438 Administered by TCPH •821,351 Administered by Other Providers Evening door-to-door outreach and education continue to be a priority! 4 Fort Worth Vaccination Strategy 5 City of Fort Worth is now a registered vaccine provider. Offering outreach in communities through strategic communications and door-to-door canvassing – Education is key! Move away from large hub locations like Farrington Field. Focus on smaller, neighborhood clinics: Pop-up, one-day neighborhood sites to continue. Roving team sites, similar to testing network, to return soon. Places of worship, community centers, and other venues with large, indoor spaces can request to host events with online web form or by calling hotline: call or email: 817-392-8478 or COVID19@FortWorthTexas.gov City Vaccine Registration •Easy, streamlined process –English and Spanish –paperless; QR code options. •No insurance or cash payment required; NO COST •Any form of ID will be considered (e.g., passport, non-U.S. IDs) •Can’t take off for an appointment? Staff will find solution for you! Please call or email: 817-392-8478 or COVID19@FortWorthTexas.gov 6 Scan QR Code Testing Options Still Available •Pharmacies, hospitals, doctor’s offices and private contractor sites are available –free with health insurance or cash payment option. •Free testing (provided by the State of Texas) is still available in Tarrant County: •TCC -Southeast Campus (9 a.m. -5 p.m. daily; cheek swab method) 2100 Southeast Parkway, Arlington, TX 76108 •Tarrant County Northeast Annex (9 a.m. -5 p.m. daily; cheek swab method) 837 Brown Trail, Bedford, TX 76022 •Can’t locate a test? Staff will find solution for you! Please call or email: 817 -392-8478 or COVID19@FortWorthTexas.gov 7 COVID-19 Update for City of Fort Worth Work Group May 11, 2021 Keith Argenbright, M.D. Director of Moncrief Cancer Institute NOTE: The information in the presentation cannot be shared without the verbal presentation and information cannot be changed. 10 Source:NCTTRAC EMResource Master Data Set -County Level for data through 8/1-5/4 Shaded regions in the model’s forecast represent 90% credible interval. COVID-19 Hospitalizations in Tarrant County: Past, Present, and Future Forecasting COVID-19 hospitalizations (black squares) have decreased by 10% over the past two weeks. The blue line shows the estimated number of hospitalizations for the last three weeks, as well as our 21-day forecast starting from 5/4. Tarrant County total COVID-19 hospitalizations are predicted to reach 100-150 concurrent hospitalized cases by May 24. Roughly 140 new COVID-19 infections per day are expected by May 24. Hospitalized COVID-19+ Patients: Past and Predicted Updated 5/5/21 with data from 5/4/21 COVID-19 Modeling Comparing COVID-19 Hospitalizations in Tarrant and Dallas Counties 12 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 COVID-19 Hospitalizations Dallas Tarrant Updated 5/5/21 with data available 5/4/21 13 How Contagious Was COVID-19 in DFW Two Weeks Ago? Updated 5/5/21 with data available 5/4/21 Epidemic grows/ persists above this line Epidemic declines below this line Rt Dallas Tarrant A.Memorial Day B.Mask order put into place C.Colleges/schools reopen D.Halloween E.Thanksgiving F.Christmas These graphs show the Rt value as of two weeks ago, calculated using the date positive tests were collected. The Rt value appears to have been oscillating around 1 in Dallas County and Tarrant County two weeks ago. Storm - related testing disruptions skewed the apparent Rt values in late February. Source: Dallas County HHS, Accessed 5/4 up to specimen collection date of 4/26; Tarrant County PH, Accessed 5/3; data for pos itive tests with a specimen collection date of 4/26 or earlier 1)Cori, A. et al. A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics (AJE 2013). 2) Assumes serial interval follows gamma distribution as calculated in Nishiura, et al ."Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections."Int J Infect Dis.2020 Mar 4;93:284-286.doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.060. DFW COVID-19 Prevalence Study 15 WHAT WE SET OUT TO ACCOMPLISH 1.Measure prevalence of COVID-19 in DFW and by sociodemographic subgroup 2.Understand development and duration of immunity to COVID-19, and monitor for emerging hotspots 3.Engage the community as a trusted, transparent source of information about the COVID-19 pandemic 16 COVID INFECTION RATES: TARRANT COUNTY (N=5,697) FOR RACE / ETHNIC GROUPBY TIME PERIOD 0.8%2.9%3.4%4.1% 7.4% 15.9% Aug-Oct Nov-Dec Jan-Feb Active Infection (PCR+, Ab-)Prior Infection (Ab+) 4.6%1.3%4.0%2.1% 12.3% 5.9% 10.5% 7.6% Hispanic Non-Hispanic (NH) Asian NH African American NH White Active Infection (PCR+, Ab-)Prior Infection (Ab+) 17 VACCINE BEHAVIOR AND HESITANCY RESPONSES AMONG THE UNVACCINATED (N = 3,315), HOW LIKELY WILL THEY GET THE VACCINE? Dec 2020 –Feb 2021: 19.7% of survey respondents (810 / 4122) reported receiving a COVID-19 vaccine Reason for Hesitancy N I am concerned about side effects from the vaccine. 499 I don’t know enough about how well a COVID vaccine works.402 I don’t trust the vaccine will be safe.285 I’m not concerned about getting really sick from COVID-19 133 74.8% 16.3% 8.8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very Likel y/Li kely Un deci ded Very Un li kel y/U nl ikely 18 KEY STUDY TAKEAWAYS 1.Documented racial and socioeconomic disparities in COVID-19 prevalence in Tarrant and Dallas Counties 2.Identified association between COVID-19 infection and behavioral risk factors, including small social gatherings 3.Developed infrastructure that is being leveraged to address vaccine hesitancy and facilitate vaccine dissemination 4.Various outreach strategies are needed to effectively address engagement barriers for communities of need 19 POLICY IMPLICATIONS 60% SYMPTOMATIC •Given patterns of vaccination uptake and presence of new variants, our communities remain vulnerable to COVID-19. •Our local and national data support: o Mask wearing and social distancing in public spaces o Maintaining healthy environments in restaurants and adjusting practices during surges o Educating community members so they can make an informed decision about vaccination and how it can protect themselves, family/household members, friends, colleagues, and their community COVID-19 Vaccine Summary of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Company Platform Doses Number in trial vaccinated Protection from Hospitalized COVID-19 Protection from severe COVID-19 Protection from all sx COVID-19 Pfizer/ BioNTech mRNA 2 ~18,600 100%100%95% (>90% out to 6 mos) Moderna mRNA 2 ~15,000 97% (1 after 2nd dose) 97%94.1% (Ab levels out to 6 mos) J&J/ Janssen Human adeno vector 1 ~22,000 100%85% (none hospitalized) 72% US, 66% Latin America, 57% S Africa Oxford/ AstraZeneca Chimp adeno vector 2 ~28,588 100%100%76% US; 70% UK; S Africa trial halted for mild Novavax Protein + Adjuvant 2 ~8800 100%100%96% UK; 55% S. Africa Adapted from @MonicaGandhi9 (Twitter 4/2/21) Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination on UTSW Employees 2.61% 1.82% 0.05% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Percent newly testing positive for COVID-19 on or after UTSW COVID-19 employee vaccination distribution began, stratified by vaccination status*, UTSW vaccine eligible employees (N=23,234), 12/15/2020 -01/28/2021 Infected among non-vaccinated (234/8,969) Infected among partially vaccinated (112/6,144) Infected among fully vaccinated (4/8,121) *Vaccination status is determined at date of positive COVID-19 test showing new infection 12/15/20 or later, and if no infection, vaccination status as of 1/28/21. Non- vaccinated include those with no record of vaccine received at UTSW. Partially vaccinated include those who received one dose, or who received their second dose less than 7 (Pfizer) or 14 (Moderna) days ago. Fully vaccinated include those who received their second dose at least 7 (Pfizer) or 14 (Moderna) days ago Non-vaccinated Partially vaccinated Fully vaccinated CDC Real-World Effectiveness Study: mRNA Vaccines https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm#T2_down Questions