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HomeMy WebLinkAbout10238-06-2019 - 2019-06-11 - Informal Report�•''"��; • ••• � �-� �� , �. � � �,,; ��' w.,�T--;��'o �� .,�r �� 0 �° s� �+ i� �,��._ x�s� raya To the Nlayor and Nlernbers of fhe Cifiy Council r 1 C ;; 1 � Page 1 of 5 : , . � -• ; • • •. :• � � . � . . , . This informal report is intended to provide the Mayor and City Council with a received on bonds issued under the City's 2019 Debt Plan. A summary of th agencies and corresponding credit drivers are shown in more detail below. Th included for review to provide additional detail. Backqround summary of the ratings e rating actions by the e rating reports are also As part of our 2019 debt plan the financing team has been meeting with rating analysts from Moody's, Fitch, Standard & Poor's and Kroll over the past several weeks. The City sought ratings for the following upcoming bond sales: Series 2019 General Purpose Bonds, Series 2019 Tax Notes, and Series 2019 Water & Sewer Revenue Bonds. The presentation this year focused on historical and projected financial performance, the economy, operating highlights, and pension reform. Overview of Ratinq Oufcomes Moodv's ` GO Ratinq — Affirrned rating of Aa3; revised outlook to `stable' from `negative' "The city of Fort Worth, TX's (Aa3 stable) credit profile continues to be constrained by a high unfunded pension liability and weak annual pension contributions, despite reform. Given contributions that are insufficient to amortize the slightly reduced unfunded pension liability, the liability will grow absent strong asset performance or additional pension reform and higher contributions beyond those already approved. However, the credit profile is supported by the city's substantial financial resources to afford increasing pension costs due to strong economic growth, as well as the legal ability to reform benefits further, and the demonstrated political will to both exercise this legal right and to increase contributions. Further, the city's conservative budgeting and capital planning practices amid growth have led to increasing and consistently healthy operating reserves, and a relatively manageable debt burden on par with peers." "The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the city's financial profile will remain healthy over the near term, supported by a strong management team able to leverage the revenue growth for the city to absorb increased pension costs with continued capital investment and higher service demands commensurate with a growing population. " Factors that could lead to an upgrade: • Considerable corporate investment and job creation with the city limits • Material reduction to unfunded pension liabilities and more rapid amortization • Moderation of fixed cost burden Factors that could lead to a downgrade • Further material increases in the pension burden Significant increase in debt profile Poor financial perFormance leading to a significant decline in reserves Trend of declining assessed values ISSUED BY THE CITY MANAGER FORT WORTH, TEXAS �' !. :, � !. � . � - • • _ _ " � : � : � �=� �}"�� �,�6� ��$ . u° x� �� '� ����� rg,a To the fVlayor and Mernbers of ihe City Council �� � � �, Jur�e 11, 2�19 Page 2 of 5 ; : � . • '' • • • , :• .� .i � • � . : 7�_1 �;1 Water Ratinq — Affirmed rating of Aa1 with a`stable' outlook (no change) Key Credit Strengths: Large service area that extends well beyond city limits; growing customer base Strong fiscal management and capital planning Healthy debt service coverage and low direct debt profile Key Credit Challenges: • Below median liquidity for the rating category • Weak legal provisions "The stable outlook reflects our expectation the system's strong fiscal management and proactive planning practices will continue in the near term, including implementation of timely rate adjustments to maintain steady debt service coverage and healthy system liquidity amid increasing operating and maintenance expenditures, including rising pension costs allocated to the system. " Factors that could lead to an upgrade: • Sustained trend of building and maintaining liquidity at high levels • Improved legal provisions for the bonds • Upgrade of the city's GOLT rating Factors that could lead to a downgrade: • A material decline or sustained weak liquidity relative to peers • Weak financial performance leading to a reduction in debt service coverage • Significantly increased leverage • Rating downgrade of the city's general obligation bonds, coupled with clear linkage between the financial stress of the city related to pension funding with the financial health of the system Kroll GO Ratinq — Assigned and affirmed rating of AA+; revised outlook to `positive' from 'stable' Kroll was added in 2018 to assist us in telling our story in a more effective way. We were specifically interested in how they have historically framed local government pension discussions and how they could assist the City in this communication. Highlights from the Kroll report, which are representative of many of the other comments from the other firms, include the following: Key Credit Strengths: • Strong financial management policies and an experienced, effective management team. • Robust economic growth is supported by a diverse, growing tax base, and low unemployment rates. • Strong financial reserves and liquidity, and conservative budgeting practices. ISSUED BY THE CITY MANAGER FORT WORTH, TEXAS �:�r_ �- �•:: a :• � ::1 ii:: : �� � ���� o� ��. s� � �, �° $� °'�" �`� ���x$5 YpqS io the IVlayor and Ntembers of the Cifiy Council `. r : Page 3 of 5 June 11, 2019 : � ' • ' � • � . •' :•' � 1 • � : ' �' Key Rating Concerns: • Ability to absorb increasing pension contributions while maintaining financial strength. • The reliance on sales tax for operations exposes the revenue base to economic fluctuations; deviation from the City's practice of conservative budgeting would increase credit risk. Drivers for Rating Change: • Sustained financial performance despite any economic downturns (+) • Successful transition to new pension contributions without impact to the City's strong financial position (+) • City management's ability to adapt to the new property tax levy limitation without significant impact to operations (+) • Economic decline which causes a significant reduction in tax revenues (-) "The Positive Outlook reflects KBRA's recognition of the City's robust and growing resource base, continued strong financia! profile and implementation of pension reforms. KBRA expects the City wil! manage the increased pension contributions and maintain its strong financial position. KBRA will monitor the pending state legislation to restrict property tax levy growth, and management's response to operate within the possible new constraints." S&P GO Ratinq — Assigned and affirmed AA rating, with `stable' outlook (no change) The rating reflects S&P's view of Fort Worth's: • Adequate economy, with access to a broad and diverse metropolitan statistical area (MSA); • Very strong management, with strong financial policies and practices under our Financial Management Assessment (FMA) methodology; • Weak budgetary performance, with operating deficits in the general fund and at the total governmental fund level in fiscal 2018; • Very strong budgetary flexibility, with an available fund balance in fiscal 2018 of 16% of operating expenditures; • Very strong liquidity, with total government available cash at 85.8% of total governmental fund expenditures and 10.Ox governmental debt service, and access to external liquidity that we consider exceptional; • Very weak debt and contingent liability profile, with debt service carrying charges at 8.6% of expenditures and net direct debt that is 122.1 % of total governmental fund revenue, as well as a large pension and other postemployment benefits (OPEB) obligation. We recognize the city has made revisions to its pension plan, however, it will take time to determine whether those recent changes will sufficiently address the obligation; and • Strong institutional framework score "The stable outlook reflects our view that the city will likely continue to see strong economic growth and taxable value gains due to its participation in the Dallas-Fort Worth MSA. The outlook a/so reflects our ISSUED BY THE CITY MANAGER FORT WORTH, TEXAS •' •. �'' ��:' 'i� � : ' • 1 :. T'o the Nlayor and �ernbers of the Cify Council June 11, 2019 ����t�� Page 4 of 5 : oi' �i• �� : � �dq`,� a� SUBJECi': FINAL RESULiS OF RATIIVG OUTCOIVIES ON BONDS WITFiIN THE '�2* � � ,.. i� . �° �" 5 ` 2019 DEBT PLAN t�g7�. view that the city`s recent pension modifications show that otficials are committed to reducing the plan's significant net pension liability through a combination of contribution increases, benefit changes, and actuarial assumption changes, which may ease long-term budgetary pressures, even though these pressures wil/ likely persist, or potentially worsen, during the two-year outlook period. The full effect of the recent changes is not known at this time, but we do not expect these changes to improve the net pension liability or the p/an's funded status during the outlook period. At this time, we do not expect to change the rating within the next two years. Downside scenario Assuming all other rating factors remain stable or improve, if the city's recent pension modifications do not show progress towards making the ADC, or if the net pension liability continues to grow after the recent actuarial changes are incorporated, we could lower the rating. We could a/so lower the rating if continued contribution increases further pressure the cify's budgetary performance that causes a reduction in its budgetary flexibility or budgetary performance, or a revision in our view of the city's long-term financial planning as reflected in our FMA. Upside scenario While we recognize that the city has made modifications to its pension, we do not expect a material improvement in the funded status of the plan, and we do not expect the city to make the full ADC during the two-year outlook period. However, we could raise the rating if there were a significant improvement in the pension funded status, and the city begins making its ADC, without reserve levels deteriorating, and the city experienced continued economic improvement that results in economic metrics that are comparable with those of higher-rated peers, assuming all other rating factors improve or remain stable. " Water Rating — Affirmed rating of AA+ with a`stable' outlook (no change) "The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Fort Worth's willingness to adjust rates, including passing through wholesale cost pressures, will be key to rating stability. The city's continued economic growth and diversity, limiting cyclicality from sectors such as energy and commodities, as well as a housing market that we do not view to be in a bubble, are factors that enhance rating stability, in our opinion. Upside scenario Given that the pension reform measures have only recently been implemented and that it could be some time before the overal/ funding levels materially improve, a`AAA' rating is not likely within our two-year outlook horizon. Still, a higher rating would be predicated, in large part, on sustained improvement in addressing the pension liability while still maintaining strong operations and similar financial capacity. Downside scenario Downward pressure on the rating would most likely come from scenarios such as an increased reliance on the utility's surplus net revenues by the general government either for either subsidizing general fund operations or to shore up fiduciary funds beyond even that for which the system is responsible. A downgrade could also follow a sharp increase in debt if Fort Worth were to receive a consent decree or other /arge-sca/e requirement, or evidence of what we would view as deferred maintenance or deferring on key decisions that could help sustain the current financial profile." ISSUED BY THE CITY MANAGER FORT WORTH, TEXAS '� �''�'� ": r•�' �' ��� # ', :. �,� �_ �� 4xr��Q� . Q� °��. ��y - � �� i� ��x�.s rg�a Fitch i'o fhe Nlayor and Members of the City Council i 1 :; 1` ' '' Page 5 of 5 SUBJECT: FINAL RESULiS OF F2ATING OUT'CONIES ON BONDS WITFiIN THE 2019 DE�I" PLARI GO Ratinq — Assigned and affirmed rating of AA+, with a`negative' outiook (no change) "The rating reflects Fitch's expectation of strong operating performance through the economic cycle, as well as solid economic and revenue prospects. Fitch maintains the Negative Rating Outlook to analyze over the coming review cycle the impact of recent pension reforms on both expenditure flexibility and operating performance. " Water Ratinq — Assigned and affirmed Water's rating of AA with a`stable' outlook (no change) Key Rating Drivers: • Stable financial performance; Improving liquidity • Average direct debt; • Increased capital spending • Sound revenue defensibility • Wholesaler pressures • Large and diverse service area Next Steps The city will continue with the plan of finance of the 2019 debt plan and related bond sales with final closings scheduled on July 16'n Senate Bill 2— Moodv's Sector Comment in addition to the rating reports, a Moody's commentary discussing property tax reform passed by the Texas legislature has been provided. Senate Bill 2 is anticipated to take effect on January 1, 2020, which Moody's believes will limit revenue-raising flexibility resulting in negative credit implications for the bulk of local governments. If you have any questions, please call Kevin Gunn, Interim Chief Financial Officer, at 817-392-8517. David Cooke City Manager ISSUED BY THE CITY MANAGER FORT WORTH, TEXAS U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE CREDIT OPINION 30 May 2019 Contacts Denise Rappmund +1.214.979.6865 VP-Senior Analyst denise.rappmund@moodys.com Gera M. McGuire +1.Z14.979.6850 VP-Sr Credii Officer/Manager gera.mcgu ire@moodys.com CLIENT SERVICES Americas Asia Pacific Japan EMEA 1-212-553-1653 852-3551-3077 81-3-5408-4100 44-20-7772-5454 Fort Worth (City of) TX Update to credit analysis fol�owing revision of outlook to stable Summary The city of Fort Worth, TX's (Aa3 stable) credit profile continues to be constrained by a high unfunded pension liability and weak annual pension contributions, despite reform. Given contributions that are insufficient to amortize the slightly reduced unfunded pension liability, the liability will grow absent strong asset performance or additional pension reform and higher contributions beyond those already approved. However, the credit profile is supported by the city's substantial financial resources to afford increasing pension costs due to strong economic growth, as well as the legal ability to reform benefits further, and the demonstrated political will to both exercise this legal right and to increase contributions. Further, the city's conservative budgeting and capital planning practices amid growth have lead to increasing and consistently healthy operating reserves, and a relatively manageable debt burden on par with peers. On May 29, 2019 we affirmed the city's GOLT rating at Aa3 and revised the outlook to stable from negative. Exhibit 1 Total balance sheet leverage remains high following pension reform 800 % 700 % 600% 500% 400 % 300% 200% 10D% 0% ■ Nel direct debl ■Adj, Net Pension Liahility ■Adj. Net OPEB Liability 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 12/31/2016 Pension measuremenl date Source: Moody's investors service, ciry's audited financial reports and actuarial reports Credit strengths » Large and growing tax base » Regionally significant economy �-- 12/31/2018 (aRer changes) � — � MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE » Trend of operating revenue growth; healthy operating reserves » Legal flexibility to reform pension benefits and programs prospectively Credit challenges » Large unfunded pension burden » High fixed costs Rating outlook The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the city's financial profile will remain healthy over the near term, supported by a strong management team able to leverage the revenue growth for the city to absorb increased pension costs with continued capital investment and higher service demands commensurate with a growing population. Factors that could lead to an upgrade » Considerable corporate investment and job creation within the city limits » Material reduction to unfunded pension liabilities and more rapid amortization » Moderation of fixed cost burden Factors that could lead to a downgrade » Further material increases in the pension burden » Significant increase in debt profile » Poor financial performance leading to a significant dedine in reserves » Trend of dedining assessed values This publication does not announce a credit rating actien For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, pfease see the ratings tab on thz issuer/entity page on wevNtmoodys.com For the most updated credit raiin� ac.tion information and rating history. � 30 hlay 2019 Fort Wortli (City ofj TX: Update to credit analysis following revision of outlook to stable MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE I � Key indicators Exhibit Z Fc�[Worth(Qcyo`)TX ZOtd 20i, 201ii ?Ul7 2015 Economy/Tax Base Total Full Value ($000) $44,265,768 $47,075,950 $49,667.064 $54,517J29 b61,244,653 Population 778,573 796,614 F315,930 835J29 848,860 Full Value Per Capita $56,855 $59.095 $60,872 $65,2E30 $72,149 Median Family Income (% of US Median) 93.4% 94.4 % 94.9% 94.3% 94.3% Finances Opera[ing Revenue (b000) $681,592 $743,301 $7D,094 $780,172 $817,711 Fund Balance(5000) $126,351 $164,767 $135,100 $178,465 $190,871 Cash Balance ($000) $112,283 $130.023 $722,175 $172,276 �,188,303 FundBalanceasa%ofRevenues 18.5% 22.2% 18.6% 22.9% 23.3% Cash Balance as a% of Revenues 16.5 % 17.5% 16.8% 22.1 % 23.0% DebdPensions Net Direc[ Debt ($000) $862,243 8812,433 $834J96 $794,634 $769,819 3-Year Average of Moody's ANPL (3000) $2,183,532 $2.389,366 $2,652,562 53,160,829 $3,506,795 Net Direct Debt / Operating Revenues (x) 1.3x l.lx l.lx 1.Ox 0.9x NetDirectDebt/FuIlValue(%) 1.9% 1J% 1.7% 1,5% 1.3% Moody's - adjusted Net Pension Liability (3-yr average) to Revenues (x) 3.2x 3,2x 3.6x 4.1x 4.3x Moody's - adjusted Net Pension Liability (3-yr average) to Ful I Value (%) 4.9% 5.1% 5.3 % 5.8% 5.7°/o Cash and fund balances indude the general fund, debt service fund and crime mntrol and prevention fund Source: Moody's Inves[ors Service, ciry'saudited financial repons Profile The city of Fort Worth is located in Tarrant (Aaa stable), Denton (Aaa stable), Parker, Johnson and Wise counties covering 345 square miles in the western portion of the expansion Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. The city's estimated population as of 2019 was 848,860, and is the 13th largest city in the U5. Detailed credit considerations Economy and tax base: large metropolitan tax base in north Texas will continue to grow The city of Fort Worth will continue to see assessed value growth over the near term, driven by the strong economy fueled by in- migration and ongoing residential, commercial and industrial construction. The city's tax base is large at $67.8 billion as of fiscal Z019, and has exhibited strong average annual growth of 9.8% over the past five years, with additional growth projected for fiscal zOzO value. Despite a robust employment base, residential assessed value (AV) has been expanding at a faster pace than commercial development, contributing to a very diverse tax base. The top ten taxpayers accounted for a low 5.6% of the fiscal 2018 AV. The city is a regionally significant economic center, serving as the western anchor point to the larger Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, and is positioned to continue to see economic growth due to favorable demographic trends and a tight labor market. Major employers indude American Airlines Inc. (Ba1 stable), which is building a new headquarters in the city, and Lockheed Martin Corporation (Baa1 stable). However, residents and commuters have an array of employment options in the city, induding military, government, healthcare and education, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and energy. City officials continue to target corporate economic development to generate high paying jobs within the city. As of March 2019, the city's unemp�oyment rate was down to 3.6% and is about on par with the state unemployment level over the same period. At the same time, the labor force has continued to grow, up over 18% since 2013 per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With growth and a tight labor market, median income has been rising in the city, at 94.3% of the US median as of 2017, up from 89.8% since the 2010 census, as per ACS. Moody's Economy reports as of May 2019 that the western portion of the metro area, induding Fort Worth, will grow at an above- average pace over the near term given defense and other manufacturing expansion, particularly military aircraft, as well as ongoing new 3 30 May 2019 Fort �Vorth (City ofJ TX: Update to [redit anafysis foLlowing revision of outlook to stable MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANC construction. Longer term, high population growth, a diversified manufacturing base, and lower business and living costs within the metroplex point to above-average gains. Financial operations and reserves: healthy operating reserves to continue supported by strong underlying economy Despite increasing pension costs, the city's financial profile will remain stable over the near term with conservative and strategic management and the ability to �everage the strong economic growth in the city. On May 25, 2019, the Texas legislature approved the Texas Property Tax Reform and Transparency Act which is expected to be signed into law any day. Post approval by the Governor, Fort Worth, and most other governmental units in the state, will face limited financial flexibility in setting a property tax rate. The restriction, which can be overridden by citizens in a mandatory election, restricts rate setting to a maximum of 3.5% additional operating revenue on existing properties. Previously the limit was 8% with a voter petitioned election required to potentially roll back portions levied over the effective 8% limitation. Given the city's current growth trends, the reduced abifity to raise property taxes is still consistent with its general fund forecast which assumes property tax growth of 4% annually. The city's general fund forecast assumes new construction values add 0.5% to property taxes annually. In fiscal 2018 (ending September 30), strong sales tax receipts and other revenue sources above budget, combined with conservative budgeting of expenditures, led to a substantial $17.3 million general fund surplus. At year end fiscal 2018, the available fund balance was $137.2 mil�ion, a healthy 20% of general fund revenues. In fiscal 2019 the city approved a balanced budget, though revenues are trending higher than the budget projections. Sales taxes are up 6.1% year over year, while the budget projected a 2.9% increase. Moody's considers the city's operating funds to indude the general fund and debt service fund, as well as the crime control and prevention district (CCPD), which supports a material amount of annual public safety expenditures and is funded by a 0.5% city-wide sales tax. As of fiscal 2018, the combined operating funds reported an available fund balance of $190.9 million, a healthy 23.3°/o of operating revenues. Property taxes are favorably the city's largest source of operating revenues, and tend to be less susceptible to economic cydes. As of fiscal 2018, property taxes accounted for 54.3% of general fund revenues, and 57% of combined operating revenues, followed by sales tax at 23% and 28.3%, respectively. Favorable economic trends have fueled strong operating revenue growth. Over the past five years, property taxes have increased an average 5.5% and sa�es taxes have increased an average 6%. The city is forecasting using an assumed 4% annual increase to both revenue sources through Z026, which is in part tied to a goal to continue to lower the tax rate over the medium term, adhere to the pending change in law that will take affect on January 1, z020 and conservative projecting. The city's property tax rate is high relative to peers in Texas, with an all-in rate of $7.85/$1000 of AV in fiscal 2019, down from $8.05 in fiscal 2018. The city started lowering the rate in 2017 amid strong growth, as well as a desire to remain competitive for business attraction. Of this rate, $630/$1000 supports the general fund while $1.55 is dedicated to general obligation debt. LIQUIDITY The city's liquidity position is expected to remain stable over the near term. Liquidity in the general fund increased to $135.9 million in fiscal 2018, or 19.8% of general fund revenues. Cash and investments in the combined operating funds increased to $188.3 million, or a healthy 23°/o of operating revenues. Debt and pensions: high balance sheet leverage driven by pension burden The city's direct debt burden is expected to remain relatively low and manageable in the near term despite additional debt planned to support capital investment throughout the city. As of the most recent bond sale, the city had $883.9 mi�lion oF net direct debt outstanding, induding $829.4 million of GOLT debt. The city's net direct debt burden represents a manageable 1.3°/o of the 2019 full value and indudes GOLT debt, capital leases and other guaranteed obligations. The net direct GOLT debt induded in the debt burden calculation is net of $3 million backed by the solid waste system. The city plans to continue to phase in debt authorized under the 2018 bond package over several years. With tax base growth to continue over the near term, the net direct debt burden is expected to remain in line with historic levels. DEBTSTRUCTURE Given the city's practice to issue new debt with a twenty year amortization and level annual principal, the overall debt profile pays off quickly with 75.8% retired within ten years. d 30 May 2019 Fort Worth (City of) TX: Update to credit analvsis followine revisinn nf nnrinnl< rn ctahla� DEBT-RELATED DERIVATIVES The city is not a party to any derivative agreements. PENSIONS AND OPEB Despite recent reform, the city's pension burden and high fixed costs continue to be the primary weakness of the credit profile. The pension burden was reduced by a small amount in the current fisca� year post-pension reform, though is expected to continue to grow due to persistently weak annual contributions. The city council approved benefit reductions and increased city contributions in December 2018, which was followed by a favorable vote of the employees to raise their contributions. However, following negative investment returns in 2018, the impact of the benefit reductions on the unfunded pension liability was muted. Increases to contributions are positive, and favorably the city induded additional automatic increases to the city and employees if the current contributions fal� below the actuarial�y determined employer contribution (ADEC). However, the automatic increases are projected to be triggered as soon as they are allowed, starting in 2022, and remain over the actuarially projected 44 year amortization period. Absent another round of benefit reductions, or consistently high investment returns, contributions will need to increase to amortize the unfunded liability. Unique relative to many other large city peers in the state, the city maintains local control to adjust pension benefits and increase employers contributions, and therefore can remain nimble going forward if further reforms are required to maintain solvency of the pension fund�. The city exercised this authority several times in recent history, having reduced benefits to employees on a prospective basis in 2011 and 2014. As of fiscal 2018, the city's adjusted net pension liability (ANPL), net of support from the water and sewer enterprise of approximately 13°/o, was $3.7 billion, which represented an elevated 449% of operating revenues and 6°/o of the fisca� 2019 full value of the tax base. With the reforms put in p�ace, the ANPL is projected to decrease to $3.4 billion, which wou�d be induded in the city's fiscal 2020 audited financial statement. Based on the city's strong revenue growth trajectory, we expect the slightly reduced ANPL would represent a moderated but high 350-400°/o of operating revenues. The ANPL had been increasing annually, up from $2 billion in fiscal 2012 for comparison, as earnings have fallen below the assumed 7.75% discount rate of the plan up until 2017, and contributions have fallen short of what is needed to prevent the liability from growing, or "tread water". Favorably, the pension board reduced the assumed rate of return to 7%, from the higher 7.75°/o, in 2019. While earnings in 2017 were strong at 14.6%, the fund experienced a loss of 3.6% in 2018. Earnings over the past five years have averaged 4.5%, compared to 7.6% over the past ten years. In fiscal 2018, the city contributed $81.2 million to the plan, net of enterprise support, which fell be�ow the "tread water" indicator by a sizeable S29 million, or 3.6°/o of 2018 operating revenues. The "tread water" indicator shows a contribution level that would prevent the liability from growing, based on reported assumptions from the city's actuarial valuation report, induding the previously assumed 7.75% rate of return, which is high and above the assumed rate for many of the largest plans in the country. The board's recent reduction of the assumed rate of return to 7% is more in line with large plans. Assuming a tread water calculation at the reported GASB rate of 5.1% (a blended yield incorporating the pre-reform asset depletion of the fund), the tread water gap balloons to $126.7 million, or a large 15.5% of operating revenues. Post-reform, we expect that the tread water gap will persist, pointing to continued growth in the unfunded liability. The city will be increasing its contribution to the fund by 4.5% of payroll, back-dated to December 2018. The city's total contribution will approximate 24.5% of payroll. Starting in Ju�y 2019, emp�oyees will commence phased increases over the next two years, in total ranging from 1.1-4.4% of pay. It is the city's goal to amortize the unfunded liability over 30 years, based on reported assumptions, which was not accomplished through the current reform. This was in part due to the investment losses in 2018, but also the board's decision to reduce the assumed rate of return to a more realistic 7%. Per the reform package, starting in fiscal 2022, if the actual contribution has fallen below the ADEC for Z years, the contributions are to automatically increase by 2%, split 60/40 to the city and employees, and another 2%, for a maximum of 4% the following year if conditions are not met. The city's actuary has reported that in the coming year, the contribution will fall short of the ADEC by 7% of payroll, or $33.7 million. In the coming few years, we project the underfunding relative to the tread water indicator (net of enterprise support) will be approximately $50-$60 million or about 6-7% of projected operating revenues. MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE The city provides post-employment health care benefits and death benefits (OPEB) to retirees, established under legal authority of the City Charter. Benefits are administered by the city and funded on a pay-as-you-go basis. The city subsidizes premiums in full for employees hired before October 1988 and in part for those hired prior to January 2009. No subsidy is provided for employees hired after January 2009, though they may enroll in the healthy plan. In fiscal 2018, the city's OPEB contributions were $26.6 million, or 3.3°/o of operating revenues. At year-end, the net OPEB obligation was $883.3 million, $753.1 million of which was governmental, or 0.9 times operating revenues. Indusive of debt service, actual pension contributions and OPEB, the city's fixed costs are elevated at 26.2% of operating revenues in 2018, and will increase given planned augmentation of city contributions. If the city were contributing to the pension fund at a"tread water" level, assuming a 7.75°/o previous discount rate, fixed costs would increase to 29.II°/o of operating revenues, and a significant 41.7% of revenues at the GASB rate as reported. Post-reform, fixed costs at the actual pension contribution are projected to total about 27.5% of operating revenues, compared to 34.2% of operating revenues assuming a payment at tread water. Management and governance: high institutional framework score The city operates under a council/manager form of government where the mayor and eight councilmembers are elected to two year terms. The city's management practices indude formal financial policies and comprehensive budgeting and forecasting. Texas Cities have an Institutional Framework score of Aa, which is high. Institutional Framework scores measure a sector's legal ability to increase revenues and decrease expenditures. Property taxes, one of the sector's major revenue sources are subject to a cap, which cannot be overridden. However, the cap of $25 per $1,000 of assessed values, with no more than $15 allocated for debt, still a�lows for significant revenue-raising ability. Unpredictable revenue ffuctuations tend to be minor, or under 5% annually. Across the sector, fixed and mandated costs are generally greater than 25°/o of expenditures. Texas is a Right to Work state, providing significant expenditure cutting ability. Unpredictable expenditure fluctuations tend to be minor, under 5°/o annually. 30 hlay 2019 Fort Worth (City ofJ TX: Update to credit analysis foltowine revision of o�tlool< to stablc MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE Rating methodology and scorecard factors The U� Local Govemrr�ent General Ob�ieation Ratin� Methodolo�v indudes a scorecard, a too� providing a composite score of a loca� government's credit profile based on the weighted factors we consider most important, universal and measurable, as well as possible notching factors dependent on individual credit strengths and weaknesses. Its purpose is not to determine the final rating, but rather to provide a standard platform from which to analyze and compare local government credits. Exhibit 4 Fort Worth (City of), TX Fon wonn �cicy on rx RaHng Factors Economy/Tax Base (30%) �'� Tax Base Size: Full Value (in OOOs) Full Value Per Capita Median Family Income (% of US Median) Notching Factors:�Z� Regional Economic Center Finances (30%) Fund Balance as a% of Revenues 5-Year pollar Change in Fund Balance as °/a of Revenues Cash Balance as a% of Revenues 5-Year pollar Change in Cash Balance as % of Revenues Management (20%) Institutional Framework Operating History: 5-Year Average of Operating Revenues / Operating Expenditures Debt and Pensions (20%) Net Direct Debt / Full Value (%) Net Direct Debt / Operating Revenues (x) 3-Year Average of Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability / Full Value (%) 3-Year Average of Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability / Operating Revenues (x) Notching Factors:�`� OtherAnalyst Adjustment to Debt and Pensions Factor (specify): High tread water gap/negative cash flow in pension fund to persist despite reforms, high fixed costs Standardized Adjustments [3]: Unusually strong or weak security features: Secured by statute Measure Score $67,762,925 Aaa $81,685 Aa 94.3% Aa Up 23.3% Aa 0.3% A 23.0% Aa 0.2% A Aa Aa 1.Ox A 1.3% Aa 1.1x A 5.2% Baa 4.3x Baa Scorecard-Indicated Outcome Assigned Rating [1] Economy measures are based on data from the most recent year avaifable. [2] Notching factors are specificafly defined in the US Local Govemment General obligation Debt methodology dated December 76, 2016. [3] Standardized adjustments are outfined in the GO Methodology Scorecard Inputs Updated for 2019 publication. Source: For[ Worth's audited /inanciaf statemenu, US Census Bureau, Moody's Investors Service Endnotes Down Up Aa3 Aa3 1 The city's Employees' Retirement Fund of the City of For�t Worth (f WERF) is comprised of two separate single-employer defined benefit plans for membership: the city of Fort Worth employees benefit plan ("city ptan") and the Retirement Fund employees plan ("staff p(an"). The FWERF, and city plan, were established by city ordinance on September 12,1945. The pension plans are administered by a 13-member board of trustees, comprised of four active members, three retired members and six trustees appointed by the city council. 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REPORT NUMBER 1178469 30 May 2019 Fort Worth (City of) TX: Update to credit analysis foIlowing revision of oirtloolc to stabte MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC fINANCE Contacts Denise Rappmund +1.214.979.6565 VP-SeniorAna(yst denise.rappmund�amoodys.com Gera M. N1cGuire VP-Sr Credit Officer/ Nlanag2r gera.mcguire�U�moodys.coin CLIENT SERVICES -F'1.2'14.979.6850 I Americas Asia Pacific Japan EMEA 1-212-55�-1653 852-3551-3077 81-3-5408-4100 A4-20-7772-5454 { � MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE 9 30 May 2019 Fort Worth (City of) TX: Update to credit analysis following revision of outlook to stabte U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE CREDIT OPINION 30 May 2019 Contacts Denise Rappmund +1.214.979.6£365 VP-Senior Analyst denise.rappinund@moodys.com Ge�a P�1. MlcGuire +1.214.979.6350 VP-Sr Qedit Officer/Nianager gera.mc;uire@moodys.com CLIENT SERVICES Americas Asia Pacific Japan [MEA 1-212-553-1653 852-3551-3077 81-3-5408-4100 �t=}-20J772-Sa54 Fort Worth (City of) TX Water �. Sew. Ent. Update to credit analysis Summary The city of Fort Worth Water and Sewer Enterprise, TX (Aa1 stab�e) is a regiona� treated water and wastewater service provider that benefits from its large and economically vibrant service area in the western Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. The system exhibits strong management practices induding multi-year capital planning and annual rate increases, healthy debt seivice coverage levels, and a low debt profi�e. The system's revenue bonds are in part constrained by relatively weak legal provisions and below-median though improved and adequate system liquidity. The system has a manageable level of exposure to the city's unfunded pension liability. Exhibit 1 Improved unrestricted system liquidity expected to stabilize at current level 180 days 160 days 140 days a 120 days x 0 700 days � j 80 days >. Q 60 days 40 days 20 days days 2014 2015 Sou�ce: hloody's Investo�s Service, ciryaudited financial reports 2016 2017 2018 Credit strengths » Large service area that extends well beyond city limits; growing customer base » Strong fiscal management and capital planning » Healthy debt service coverage and low direct debt profile Credit challenges » Below median liquidity for the rating category » Weak legal provisions MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE Rating outlook The stable outlook reflects our expectation the system's strong fiscal management and proactive planning practices will continue in the near term, induding implementation of timely rate adjustments to maintain steady debt service coverage and hea�thy system liquidity amid increasing operating and maintenance expenditures, including rising pension costs allocated to the system. Factors that could lead to an upgrade » Sustained trend of building and maintaining liquidity at high levels » Improved legal provisions forthe bonds » Upgrade of the city's GOLT rating Factors that could lead to a downgrade » A material dedine or sustained weak liquidity » Weak financial performance leading to a reduction in debt service coverage » Significantly increased leverage » Rating downgrade of the city's general obligation bonds Key indicators Exhibit 2 Fo; c UVorth (Ci�y o�) TX Wa�er & Se.v. Enl. System Characteristics Asset Condition (Net Fixed Assets / Annual Deprecia[ion) 35 years System Size - 0&M (in $OOOs) $256,898 Service Area Wealth: MFI %of US median 94.32% Legal Provisions Rate Covenant (x) 1.00 Debt Service Reserve Requirement No DSRF (Baa and Below) Management Rate Management Aa Regulatory Compliance and Capital Planning Aa Financial Strength Operating Revenue ($000) System Size - O&M ($000) Net Revenues($000) NetFunded Deb[($000) Annual Debt Service ($000) Annual Debt Service Coverage (x) Cash on Hand Debt [o Operating Revenues (x) Source: Moody's Inves[ors5ervice, ciryaudited financial reports, bond documen[s ZO 1 �1 $361,979 $226,719 $149,699 $881,173 $90,664 1.7x 100 days 2.4x �015 $389,205 $253,114 $150,683 $1,066,520 $94,878 1.6x 99 days 2.1x ZOio $417,299 $252,486 $171,651 $756,866 $90,488 2.Ox 118 days 1.8x 2i)17 $425,615 $243,721 $196,539 $795,142 $92,571 2.1 x 141 days 1.9x This publication does not announce a credit rating action. Por any credit ratings referenczd in thiz publication, plea;e see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating ac[ion information and rating history. 2018 $468,171 $256,898 $234,675 $808,235 $96,230 2.4x 157 days 1.7x 2 3o May 2019 Fort Worth (City of) TX U/ater & Se�v. Ent.: Update to credit analysis MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE Profile Fort Worth is located in Tarrant (Aaa stable), Denton (Aaa Stable), Parker, Johnson (Aa2) and Wise counties. The city's water department provides water and wastewater services to residential, commercial, industrial and wholesale customers. The department serves a growing population of approximately 1.3 million people within the city of Fort Worth and 32 surrounding communities. Detailed credit considerations Service area and system characteristics: regional water provider with growing customer base The system's diverse and predominantly residential customer base will remain stable over the near term. The system provides water and wastewater services to residential, commercial and industrial customers within the city of Fort Worth (Aa3 stable), as well as surrounding areas within Tarrant County on a wholesale basis. The system currently has 32 wholesa�e contracts for water and 23 wholesale contracts for wastewater service. Raw water is obtained from the Tarrant Regional Water District ("TRWD"; Aa1 stable). The system operates five water treatment plants with a total capacity of 500 million gallons per day (MGD), compared to average daily usage of 194 MGD in fiscal 2018 and peak usage of 359.8 MGD. The city anticipates expansion of the system will be needed in 2028. Wastewater from the city and 23 surrounding communities is conveyed and treated at the system's Village Creek Water Redamation Facility or two wastewater treatment plants operated by the Trinity River Authority. The Village Creek Plant has a permitted treatment capacity of 166 MGD and treated an average flow of 117 MGD in 2018. The city has built into the five year capital improvement plan funding allocation for a new wastewater treatment plant to accommodate growth on the west side of town. This project is anticipated to commence in 2023. The system's customer base is diverse. The 10 largest water customers accounted for $11.6 million in annual revenue and 4.8% of total water usage in 2018. The 10 largest wastewater customers accounted for $9.6 million in revenues and 5°/o of total wastewater usage in 2018. Residential customers accounted for 32.3% of total water sales and 45.7% of wastewater sales in 2018. Wholesale water sold accounted for 36.6% of total water volume in 2018, and 16.5% of wastewater flows. According to 2017 American Community Survey estimates, the city's wealth levels were near average with median family income equivalent to 94.3% of the US. However, the system's large service area, which extends beyond Fort Worth, is an important consideration and offsets the below average wealth. The enterprise has been continuing to further water conservation efforts while increasing rates to offset decreases in consumption and continue to meet operating and capital needs of the system. Favorably, rates charged by the system to retail customers is affordable relative to peers in the metro area, and the city is able to pass on higher O&M costs to wholesale customers in the broader service area. Debt service coverage and liquidity; healthy debt service coverage and improved system liquidity Annual rate increases are expected to provide steady financial metrics in the near term, including stable system liquidity. The system has a history of rate increases and a stable trend of increasing revenues to keep pace with growing expenditures. Fiscal 2018 revenues increased 13% from the prioryear, which induded 3.5% and 3% rate increases to water and sewer, respectively, bringing gross revenues to $491.6 million. After operating expenditures net of depreciation, net revenues of $234.7 million resulted in overall debt service coverage of a healthy 2.5 times. The system utilizes long-term forecasting and revenue assumptions. Year-to-date performance in 2019 (through March) remains favorable relative to the budget—while revenues are projected to be slightly below budgeted amounts, expenditures are projected to be 4.4% below budget largely from a credit expected from TRWD, Net revenues for debt service is projected to be slightly below 2017 results, though maintain healthy debt service coverage. While the city did not need to pass rate increases in z019, management anticipates future annual rate increases in the near term to offset increasing operating costs and cash-funded capital, and to maintain cash reserves as part of the system's long-term financial plan. LIQUIDITY At fiscal year-end 2018, liquidity has continued to improve and was up to 157 days of expenses, Per the fund's policy, the minimum reserve level is 6z days and though management expects to maintain unrestricted cash worth at least 150 days of expenses through 2024. 30 May 2019 Fort U/orth (City ofJ TX Water & Sew. Ent.; Update to credit analysis MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE Debt and legal covenants: low debt profile and weak legal provisions Following the 2019 bond sale, the system wi�l have $834.8 million in outstanding parity debt and an additional $39.9 million in outstanding subordinate lien bonds. Payout is average with 57.2% of principal retired over the next 10 years. The system's debt to revenues ratio at 1.7 times in fiscal 2018 is at the median for the rating category. The five year CIP plan calls for $1.1 billion in investment into the system, approximately 63% of which is planned to be debt funded and the remaining 37°/o will be cash funded. Despite the plans for additional borrowing, we expect the system's debt profile relative to revenues will remain below 2 times given the relatively above average pace of principal retirement and ongoing rate increases expected. LEGAL PROVISIONS Legal provisions for the bonds are weaker than traditionally seen among utility revenue bonds, though adequate given the strong management of the system. The city has covenanted to fix, establish, maintain and co�lect such rates, charges and fees for the use and availability of the system at all times as are necessary to produce gross revenues and other pledged revenues sufficient (1) to pay all current operating expenses, (2) to produce net revenues for each fiscal year at least equal to the annual debt service requirements. The additional bonds test states that net revenues for the preceding fiscal year, or for twelve consecutive months out of the fifteen months immediately preceding, must be at least equal to 1.25 times average annual debt service and 1.1 times maximum annual debt service. There is not a debt service reserve established for the bonds, though improving system liquidity is considered healthy and adequate. DEBT-RELATED DERIVATIVES The system does not have any variable rate debt and is not a party to any interest rate swaps or other derivative agreements. PENSIONS AND OPEB The system contributes to a single-employer defined benefit pension plan (the "city plan") administered by the Employees' Retirement Fund of the City of Fort Worth for employees of the system. In fiscal 2018, the system contributed $9.7 million to the City Plan, which accounts for 10.4% of the city's total contribution of $93.6 million to the plan and 2°/o of the system's 2018 operating revenues. The system's 10.4% share of the total adjusted net pension liability (ANPL) of the city plan equates to $380.2 million as of fiscal 2018, or 0.8 times revenues. In December Z018 the city council approved pension reform, which induded benefit reductions and increases to city contributions; employees approved increases to their contributions in February Z019. Implementation of the reform occurs in July z019. The city's contribution to the plan is projected to continue to fall below the actuarially defined contribution rate, as well as our calculated "tread water" level, which measures the annual government contribution required to prevent the reported net pension liability from growing under reported assumptions. A contribution amount equal to the projected 2019 tread water �evel, post-reform, would increase the system's contribution to approximately $16.7 million, representing 3.3% of fiscal 2018 operating revenues. The city has incorporated increases to pension contributions in the five year financial forecast for the uti�ity system, and corresponding rate increases needed, which range from a manageable 2.9% to 5.5% annually from 2020 through 2024. There was no rate increase in fiscal 2019. Management and governance: strong fiscal management and robust capital planning The system exhibits strong fiscal management, demonstrated by appropriate and timely rate setting measures, prudent and conservative budgeting and forecasting of revenues, as well as maintenance of multiyear planning. In addition to the �iquidity goal, the system has a goal to maintain a minimum leve� of working capital in the enterprise funds equal to three months of regu�ar, on-going operating expenses (induding transfers out). The system also has a goal of a minimum level of working capital in enterprise funds equal to three months of the amount being paid in debt service payments for the subsequent fiscal year. Rate adjustments must be approved by city council. The system's water department consists of three separate functions: water, wastewater and redaimed water, each of which have several divisions responsible for specific areas. The water department is responsible for providing safe, dean drinking water to city residents and customer cities. The wastewater department collects, monitors, treats and processes domestic and industrial waterborne waste from the city and other contracting communities. The redaimed water department provides highly treated effluent from the city's water reclamation faci�ity to wholesale and retail redaimed water customers for nonpotable uses such as irrigation and industrial water coo�ing towers. MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE , C� 2019 t�leody's Corporation, ��loody's Investors Se��ice, Inc., P400dy's Analytics, Inc. andJor their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "t�100D1^5") �\Il rights reserved. CREDIT R.4TINGS ISSUED ElY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. 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REPORTNUMBER 1178494 30 May 2019 Fort Worth (City of) TX Water & Sew. Ent.: Update to credit analysis Contacts Denise Rappmund +1.21d.979.6865 VP-SeniorAnalyst denise.rappmund@inoodys.coin � MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE Gera M. I�IcGuire VP-Sr Credit Officer/ Mana�er gera.mcguirei�Umoodys.com CLIENT SERVICES +1.21�.979.6850 Americas Asia Pacific Japan EMEA 1-212-553-"1653 852-355'I-3077 II1-3-540F3-4100 44-20-"1772-5454 6 30 May 2019 Fort Worih (City ot) TX Water & Seev. Ent.: Update to credit analysis KR�LL �ORlD RATING AGENCY Pub{ic FQnance Local Gov't GO Rating Report City of Fort Vl/o�-th, TX Assigned Rafiing(s) Outlook General Purpose AA+ Positive Bonds, Series 2019 Tax Notes, Series 2019 AA+ Positive Affirmed Rating(s) Outlook General Purpose AA+ Positive Bonds, Series 2018 Tax Notes, Series 2018 AA+ Positive Methodoloqv: .;I?.... �,��� -: _�,�V�:'i�:�17-;"�`�. �;�� Y`�}c'��z;i-,CbfO���r Analvtical Contacts: Patricia McGuigan, Director (646) 731-3350 rr�ai_ii�,r�- — � Justin Schneider, Senior Analyst (646)731-2453 William Cox, Senior Managing Director (646)731-2472 Rafiing Summary: KBRA's rating action reflects the City's strong financial management policies and practices, strong management, and strong financial performance and liquidity. Economic growth is vibrant, fostering improvement in the resident wealth profile. Debt levels are moderate and amortization is very rapid. Recent pension reforms will help contain the liability growth trajectory. Fixed costs should remain manageable. Fort Worth is the 15th largest City in the nation by population and among the fastest growing of the nation's top cities, Employment gains have kept pace with the brisk population growth, and the notably low unemployment rate is lower than the state and nation, Poverty rates have fallen and are now lower than the state average, although per capita income lags the state. One focus ofthe City's recently released strategic plan is attracting high wage job growth. The City's tax base is diverse with no dominant taxpayers. The full value (FV) per capita is almost $70,000, which KBRA views as moderate. Approximately 60% of the tax base is residential, which is on the high side among the larger cities in the state, Several large development projects located across the City are fueling tax base growth, including the 26,000 acre mixed use Alliance Texas development and the Rock Creek Ranch mixed-use project with a new 80 acre campus for Tarleton State University. American Airlines' new 300-acre corporate headquarters is nearing completion and Facebool< recently opened a large $1 billion data center. KBRA views the City's governance and management structure as strong based on its comprehensive financial management policy statements, formal budget process, multi-year financial forecasting and multi-year capital planning. The City's economic development strategic plan, aims to enhance the City's status, regionally, nationally and globally. Additionally, the City benefits from a tenured, experienced leadership team, KBRA views the City's financial performance as strong reflecting a trend of healthy operating surpluses and strong General Fund reserves. The vibrant financial results reflect the City's adherence to formal fiscal policies, conservative budgeting and fiscal monitoring practices. The primary General Fund revenue sources are property taxes and sales taxes, accounting for 59% and 25% of FY Z018 revenues, respectively. Since 2010, sales tax revenue has averaged 5.8% annual growth, and has consistently outperformed budget. KBRA views Fort Worth's debt burden as moderate, and debt service accounts for 11.0% of FY 2018 general government expenditures which KBRA also views as moderate. Debt is very rapidly amortized, with 78% maturing in ten years. The City maintains a formal five-year capital improvement plan (CIP) which is updated annually. The FY 2019-2023 CIP totals $1.7 billion, with the largest component of the CIP for water improvements to address system growth, rehabilitation, and mandates, Water project funding is primarily generated through water enterprise revenue bonds and pay-go funding. In May 2018, a$399.5 million bond election was overwhelmingly approved by voters, providing the general purpose bond authority needed for the five years of the capital improvement program. The City's pension plan ($3,1 billion net pension liability) has a low funded ratio due in part to a historically high investment rate of return assumption, and then subsequent lowering of the investment rate. To address the underfunding, created a second benefit tier. These measures were not sufficient and in December 2018, the City council approved modifications to help contain the growth trajectory and increased required contributions by both the city and employees. Fixed costs are expected to increase but given the city's resource base, KBRA expects payments to be manageable. KBRA views the City's OPEB liability as moderate. Total fixed costs, including direct debt service, the actual pension contribution and pay-go OPEB cost was a manageable 20% of FY 2018 governmental expenditures. The Positive Outlook reflects KBRA's recognition of the City's robust and growing resource base, continued strong financial profile and implementation of pension reforms. KBRA expects the City will manage the increased pension contributions and maintain its strong financial position, KBRA will monitor the pending state legislation to restrict property tax levy growth, and management's response to operate within the possible new constraints. May 21, 2019 KROLLBOND RA71NG AGENCY Key Rating Strengths � Strong financial management policies and an experienced, effective management team, m Robust economic growth is evidenced by a diverse, growing tax base, and low unemployment rates. a Strong financial reserves and liquidity, and conservative budgeting practices. Key Rating Concerns e Ability to absorb increasing pension contributions while maintaining financial strength. o The reliance on sales tax for operations exposes the revenue base to economic fluctuations; deviation from the City's practice of conservative budqetinq would increase credit risk. � - . - • Sustained financial performance despite any economic downturns. • Successful transition to new pension contributions without impact to the City's strong financial position. + • City management's ability to adapt to the new property tax levy limitation without significant impact to operations. e Economic decline which causes a significant reduction in tax revenues. Key Ratios Population Growth, 2010-2018 C ity 17 J% State 12.1% Top 10 Taxpayers as % Total AV Annual change in Market Value, 2010-2019 Unassigned General Fund Balance as % Expenditures Overall Debt as % Full Market Value Debt Payout, Ten Years Fixed Costs as % Expenditures, FY 2018 5.6% 5.1% 17.4% 4.6% 78.0% 20.2% City of Fort Worth, TX Page 2 May 21, 2019 KROLLBOND RATING AGENCY Rating Determinants (RD) 1. Management Structure and Policies AAA 2. Debt and Additional Continuing Obligations AA 3. Financial Performance and Liquidity Position AAA 4. Municipal Resource Base AA+ (revise from AA RD 1: Management Structure and Policies KBRA views the City's governance and management structure as very strong. The City's detailed Financial Policy Statements, which document a policy framework for fiscal decision mal<ing, is an important contributor to the strong governance profile. A comprehensive budget process, active financial monitoring, defined reserve policies for all City fund groups, long term financial planning and conservative constraints on use of excess reserves are some of the hallmarks of the City's strong management practices. Fort Worth recently released its first economic development strategic plan, aimed at enhancing the City's economic profile. The City's municipal services include public safety, highways and streets, solid waste, public health, public works, recreation, municipal airports, and water and wastewater systems. City Organization The City operates under a Council/Manager form of government. The City council is comprised of the mayor and nine council members, all elected for two-year terms. The mayor is elected at large, and the nine other council members are elected by district. The mayor and council appoint the City manager, as well as the City attorney, City secretary and City auditor and the municipal judges. A special election on May 7, 2016 amended the City charter. Proposition 2 increases the number of council members to 11 from nine, beginning with the first election following the 2020 census. The City benefits from a highly experienced leadership team. The City manager, David Cooke, joined the City five years ago, having previously been the county manager of Wake County, NC, another region of the nation with strong growth and a tradition of strong public finance management. The City's Interim Chief Financial officer, Kevin Gunn, was appointed in October 2018, and most recently had served four years as the City's IT Director. State Staiutory Framework The state constitution limits the ad valorem tax rate to $2.50 per $100 of taxable assessed value; and the City's home rule charter limits the tax rate to $1.90. In addition, the city must annually calculate its "rollback rate", the rate that will produce last year's maintenance and operation levy from this year's values (adjusted for additions) multiplied by 1.08 plus a rate to cover this year's debt service. If the adopted rate exceeds the rollbacl< rate, voters may petition for an election on the tax increase. The current tax rate is $0.785, providing the City ample taxing capacity within the statutory and charter real property tax rate limit; giving the City financial flexibility should unanticipated needs occur. In addition, 10.3% of the City's FY 2019 operating millage is for pay go financing, providing additional operating millage capacity should the rollback millage become a constraint. The City has lowered the tax rate for the past four years, made possible by strong growth in the tax base. Under state statutes, the local sales tax rate is limited to 2%. The City levies 1% for the general fund, 0.5% for a crime prevention and 0.5% is dedicated to the transit authority. The 0.5% for crime prevention was approved by voters for a five-year period ending September 30, 2020 and the City anticipates seeking a renewal. There are no state or local debt limit laws, except to the extent that the tax rate limitation poses a constraint. Financial Management Policies and Procedures KBRA believes the City has strong fiscal management and control practices, that are supported by formal financial policies, The City provides transparent disclosure of financial policies in the annual financial report and budget document, which highlight the City's prudent management of financial resources. Pursuant to the City's adopted financial management policy statements, the City will maintain a minimum unassigned general fund balance of 10% of regular ongoing operating expenditures, with a goal of two months (16.67%) of regular ongoing operating expenditures. Notably, the City maintains fund balance policies on all fund types, including a policy for each individual fund within the special revenue funds, enterprise funds and internal service funds. When reserves exceed the requirement, allowable uses of any year end excess reserves are stipulated in the policy, and include: funding of liabilities with a priority given to items that reduce future financial pressure, for pay-go financing, one-time expenditures, or new programs, provided a multiyear financial projection is evaluated. Budget Process The annual budget process begins in the Spring of the preceding year, with the council subsequently establishing goals for the executive staff. In compliance with the City charter, the City manager must submit to the City council a recommended balanced budget that provides a complete financial plan for all City funds, on or before August 15th of City of Fort Worth, TX Page 3 May 21, Z019 KRaLLBOND RATING AGENCY each year. The City charter further requires the budget show comparative figures for actual and estimated income and expenditures of the current fiscal year and actual income and expenditures of the preceding fiscal year. The budget is required to be adopted by the City council at least ten days after the first publication of the appropriations ordinance. The City manager is responsible for maintaining a balanced budget at all times, Strategic Planning Among the fastest growing of the nation's 20 largest cities, Fort Worth embarked on its first economic development strategic plan, released in December 2017. The plan is aimed at enhancing the City's status, regionally, nationally and globally by focusing on emerging opportunities, better capitalizing on manufacturing and healthcare expertise, leveraging existing international assets and taking a more aggressive stance to capture a greater share of high profile corporate expansions within the region. The project consulting team includes TIP Strategies, Inc, and the plan outcomes focus on high-wage job growth, more commercial/industrial tax base growth, attention to high growth businesses, and a commitment to "quality of place". The plan process involved asking stakeholders "What does economic success look like in Fort Worth?"; and the plan outlines specific initiatives as well as performance metrics. Labor Relations The City reports having favorable relations with employees. Police civil service employees receive increases in accordance with the police meet and confer agreement, which has a term of June 1, 2017 through September 30, 2020, and a one-year evergreen period. Fire civil service employee salaries are in accordance with the fire collective bargaining contract, expired September 30, 2018, with a one-year evergreen. Negotiations for a new fire agreement are actively underway, and ratification is anticipated prior to the evergreen. The City's salary schedules are detailed in an annual report; employees will receive adjustments to their pay based on their individual job performance using the City's pay for performance program. Based on the foregoing, KBRA views the City of Fort Worth's governance and management structure and policies as consistent with a AAA Rating Determinant rating. This rating level reflects the City's adherence to formal fiscal policies, maintenance of prudent reserve levels, and existence of a formal CIP along with active economic development strategic planning. RD 2: Debt and Additional Continuing Obligations KBRA views the City's debt and additional continuing obligations as moderate, which is notable given the City's exceptionally rapid population growth. The City's use of pay go financing, practice of rapid debt repayment and management of other continuing obligations have all served to contain the long-term liability profile. The City is currently addressing pension reform, and implementation of solutions is expected in the near term. Overall Direct and Overlapping Debt KBRA views Fort Worth's debt burden as moderate. The City has no variable rate debt and no exposure to derivative products such as swaps. KBRA views the City's debt amortization as very rapid with debt service quickly deescalating after MADS ($119.1 million) in 2020 (see Figure 1). FIGURE 1 Pro Forma General Purpose Debt Service $iao,oao sizo,000 ��oo,oao aso,aoo $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- 1� .� �;_ � � `I` � ■ A ■ • ■ � � � ■ ■ ■ � �� ti� ti� titi ti� tia tih ti� ti� ti$ ti� 3� �ti �ti �� �a 3y �� 3� �� �� tio tio tio ,yo ,yo ,�o tio tio ,yo tio tio tio ,yo ,yo tio ,yo tio tio tio ,�o ,yo Outstanding Debt Service ■ General Purpos2 Bonds Szries 2019 � Tax Notes Series 2019 Source: CIty of Por[ Worth With the current offering, the City will have $655.5 million in direct debt outstanding. The City does have approximately $89 million in self-supporting debti not included in the direct debt calculation. This equates to manageable levels of 1 Self-supporting debt includes Car Rental Tax Obligation, Obligations, Crime Control and Prevention District Obligations City of Fort Worth, TX Parking Obligations, Culture and Tourism Obligations, Solid Waste Page 4 May 21, 2019 �CROLL BOND RATING AGENCY overall debt per capita at $3,968, and overall debt as a percent of full market value at 4.6%. The City's direct debt service paid as a percentage of total governmental expenditures in FY 2018 as moderate (See Figure 2) Fort Worth's direct debt includes general obligation bonds, tax notes, and certificates of obligation (which are non-voted). FIGURE 2 0 ICBFBA Metric Ratio Overall direct and indirect debt per capital $ 3,968 Overall debt as % of full market value of propertyl 4.6% Debt amortization within 10 years 78.0% Debt amortization within 20 years 100.0°/o Direct de6t service as a% of total governmental expenditures 11.0% Source: Fort Worth CAFR, Official Statement. ' Includes Series 2019 issuance. With special assessment debt, special tax revenue debt and Tarrant Regional Water District Obligation included, debt per capita and debt per FMV ratios are $4,460 and 5.1%, respectively. Capital Improvement Plan (FY 2019-2023) The City of Fort Worth maintains a formal five-year capital improvement plan (CIP). The FY 2019-2023 CIP totals $1,7 billion, including $471 million budgeted for FY 2019. The largest component of the CIP is water improvements ($1.0 billion) to address system growth, rehabilitation, and mandates. Water project funding is primarily generated through revenue bonds and pay-go funding. On May 5, 2018 voters approved a general obligation bond referendum of $399,5 million by favorable margins, The authorization is expected to satisfy almost all general purpose bond funding needs for the CIP, FIGURE 3 FY 2D19-2023 CIP ��io 0 . Aviatlon Public Events !9°/a General Employee Retirement Fund s,o,o_, t` S°"d"'a�E The City maintains the City of Fort Worth employees benefit plan (the City `��,. �Stormvaater plan), a defined benefits plan. Assets of the City plan and the Retirement Fund �` •�faC2f ` : �,._zoio employees plan (the staff plan, which is relatively small) are comingled for 4�io investment purposes, but the staff plan is otherwise wholly governed and maintained outside of the City. The City plan was established by City ordinance, Source:Ci2yofFortLYoKhfY2019-2023L7P both plans are governed by state statute and are administered by the thirteen- member retirement fund board of trustees (the board). Seven of the board members are elected by plan members. The mayor and City council appoint five City residents and also designate the City's CFO as board members. Adoption of benefit changes and setting of contribution rates are determined by the mayor and the City council. The City's pension plans provide retirement, disability, and death benefits to all employees of the City, except elected officers and non-salaried appointed members of administrative boards and commissions, part-time, temporary and contract employees, and employees paid in part by another governmental agency. As oF January 1, 2019, City plans membership totaled 11,547, including 6,589 actives (57% of inembership), Pension Changes The City's pension plans currently have a low funded ratio, largely due to a historical high assumption for the investment rate of return relative to actual investment performance. The assumed rate of return is set by the pension board. To address the underfunding, the investment assumption was lowered, and a second benefit tier created. These measures were insufficient and in December 2018 the city council voted for further reforms, which were subsequently approved by employees. In brief, reforms include eliminating service credits for future accruals of sick leave and major medical leave and eliminating cost of living adjustments for service credits earned on or after July 20, 2019. These modifications reduced the unfunded accrued liability by $144.3 million. The total net pension liability is $3,1 billion. Most significantly, employees and the city agreed to larger pension contribution rates to bring down the unfunded liability, The City, and employees, contribute a fixed percentage of payroll. The City's contribution rate has been below the actuarially determined contribution (ADC) and the shortfall in the contribution has been widening, In FY 2018, the City's actual pension contribution was $93.5 million, which represents a low 71.0% of the ADC ($131.8 million). In FY 2015, the City met 94% of the ADC. As a result of the December Z018 pension modifications, the City's contribution rates are increasing as shown in the figure below. City of Fort Worth, TX Page 5 May 21, 2019 KROLLBOND RATING AGENCY FIGURE 4 Cify Pension Confribution Rates % of Payroll Group Current Rate Effective IWaximum Raie, Rate 7/2019 With Risl< Sharing Police I 20.46% I 24.96% I 27.36% Non-Police � 19.74% I 24.24% I 26.64% Source: City of Forth Worth Series 2019 preliminary official statement Employee contributions are also increasing. Under the 2019 modifications, general employee contributions will increase to 9.35% in )uly 2019 (from 8.25%), and police increases over three years to 13.53% (from 8.73%). The pension modifications include automatic risk sharing contributions: if the ADC is greater than actual contributions for two or more consecutive years, then contributions increase 2% per year with a cap of 4%. The risk sharing increases are shared 60% employer and 40% employee, which is the historical overall proportional sharing of funding. The mechanism is expected to take effect in 2022, and the maximum contribution by the city for police officers will be 27.36%, with police officers contributing a maximum of 14.73%, The plan actuary prepared an initial assessment of the modifications, and assuming a 7.5% discount rate and the 2017 valuation results, plan funding is expected to be achieved over 30 years. However, subsequently to that report, the pension board further reduced the discount rate assumptions to 7.0% and the fund, like many pension funds, suffered losses in the 4th quarter of 2018 (see KBRA's research titled, . . _. . . _.. �_ _ . .= ; _'). As a result, the City now estimates that the full funding will occur over 44 years without taking into consideration any outside gains in assets in 2019. Enactment of the pension modifications required majority approval of all employees, not just voting employees. KBRA believes that the proactive efforts of city's strong leadership team were key to the achievement of the successful vote. Pension Liability Based on GASB 67 reporting requirements, the FY 2018 the net pension liability totaled $3.1 billion (governmental and enterprise activities). The plan net position as a percent of the total pension liability was a low 42.4%. The plan's underfunding is largely due to investment experience, as the investment assumption had been as high as 8.5%. In each of the years 2011, 2013 and 2016 the investment rate assumption was reduced by .25%, bringing the investment assumption to 7.75%. The blended rate (used to discount future liabilities) was 5.35% in fiscal 2018, with the crossover date (estimated plan depletion) occurring in 2042. The City's Net Pension Liability (NPL), having grown in recent years, is by various measures high compared to other large cities (see figure 5). KBRA acknowledges the importance of the GASB NPL reporting standards, especially because of the transparent and consistent measurement they bring to the important issue of unfunded pension liabilities. However, our analysis of the issue does not stop at the point of observing and rank ordering NPL ratios. Instead, when we observe an NPL that is relatively outsized or trending negatively, KBRA analyzes the context in which the NPL has evolved in that community, the willingness and ability to address the underlying issues, and the ability of the municipality to afFord solutions. In the case of Fort Worth, KBRA notes three positive characteristics; (i) the NPL will decline next year as a result of the new pension modifications and its increased contribution requirements, (ii) the City is very conservative in managing its other direct debt obligations with 78% of debt amortizing within 10 years, (iii) the City has strong budget and economic ability to afford its increased pension contributions. City of Fort Worth, TX Page 6 May 21, 2019 � ■ � KROLL BOPlD ' RATING AGENCY FIGURE�S Long Term Liabiliti2s PerFull Mar!<et Value zo.00�io is.00�io lo.ao�io I ,, � � ! '' s.00�ia o ���� � �.I I �� ��� �I� ��I� .1 � ._�' 1�� �.I� ..I���' 111�� .�I ' a.ao io ��� ���,'c ��c� �i�\e� oa�'o J`'�oc e�Q•�,\a oec\+ �,�c\° ��'�j° a��a� �y�'•c ��`'Go Qa�o o��'�c F�� �e� yPc Gr• �o ��aa �r Pc a O O p- �ac �\ �\,c �.° Q'c c�c `' c P �a ■ Net Pension Liability ■ �irect Debt ■Total Direct and Overlapping Debt � NPL+Direct Debt+Overlapping Debt Souce: 201ft City CAFRs * 20i7 CAFR was used KBRA believes the City's tax base has ample capacity to meet all of its credit and pension obligations. The City operates within its taxing limits, and KBRA estimates the City has the capacity to meet its pension obligations. Doing so, of course, would need to be considered in the context of all other tax increases for rapidly growing school districts, other infrastructure investments and taxpayer service demands. OPEB Liabilities The City has actively managed its OPEB liability exposure, and KBRA views the related long-term liability as moderate. Depending on when an employee was hired and their years of service, the City will pay all or none of a retiree's healthcare premium costs. Employees hired on or after January 1, 2009, pay the full premium, but may participate in the plan upon retirement. All retirement eligible employees are eligible for health care coverage benefits; the normal retirement age is 65 with five years of credited service, The City has actively managed OPEB liabilities by containing benefit eligibility, creating an OPEB trust, performing a dependent benefit audit and instituting cost-effective health plan changes, The City maintains an OPEB trust, which reported a 2018 FYE fiduciary net position of $68.8 million. City officials indicated to KBRA that the trust assets are not anticipated to be utilized until benefit payments peak. In FY 2018, the City contributed $26.6 million for retiree healthcare. The net OPEB liability reported in the City's FY 2018 CAFR, was $883 million, The discount rate used in computing the plan liability was 3,53%. In FY 2018, total fixed costs (debt service, the total pension actuarially determined contribution and the OPEB contributions), represent 20.2% of total general government expenditures, Based on the foregoing, KBRA considers Fort Worth's debt and continuing obligations profile as being consistent with an AA Rating Determinant rating. This rating level reflects the City's rapid debt repayment, moderate debt service levels as well as the need to establish a sustaining funding mechanism of the pension plan. RD 3: Financial Performance and Liquidity Position KBRA views the City's financial performance as strong, with a trend of healthy operating surpluses and healthy General Fund reserve levels, with additional reserves and liquidity across all City operations. These financial results reflect the City's conservative budgeting and fiscal monitoring practices, The General Fund is the City's primary operating fund and the focus of KBRA's financial performance analysis. The City budgets on a cash basis of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the budget document is a complete financial plan for all City funds. The City manager may transfer budgeted amounts within a fund, while revisions altering total appropriations requires approval by the City council. The City's fiscal year ends September 30. Financial forecasts that evaluate budget performance, are published twice per year, in March and July, In addition to the general fund, other sizable components of governmental operations are the debt service fund, the crime and control prevention district fund (which receives a dedicated portion of the local sales tax), and the culture and the tourism fund (which receives hotel tax collections). The City maintains a sizable internal service fund (ISF), which is reimbursed by the other funds for services reported in the ISF. Management and reporting of equipment, capital project design, and healthcare costs are handled via the ISF, enabling the City to centralize and better leverage resources. The FY 2019 ISF adopted budget is $148 million, relative to the general fund budget of $731 million. City of Fort Worth, TX Page 7 May 21, Z019 KROLLBOND RA71NG QGENCY The two-primary general fund revenue sources are property taxes and sales taxes. Property taxes are collected by the county and remitted to the City as they are collected. Sales taxes, collected by the state, are remitted monthly. Dependence on sales tax can pose financial vulnerability given the exposure to economic volatility; however, the local sales tax does not apply to motor vehicle sales or motor fuel sales, thus moderating economic fluctuations. Since 2010, the sales tax revenue has averaged 5.8% growth, and in each year actual collections out performed budget. The sales tax rate totals 8.25%, with 6.25% the state share and 2% representing the local share. In Fort Worth, as is typical of large cities in the state, the local sales tax rate levied is the maximum rate allowed under state law. Of the 2% local tax rate, 0.5% is dedicated to crime control (reported in a special revenue fund of the City). In addition, 0.5% is dedicated to the Fort Worth Transit Authority (FWTA), a separate entity from the City. FIGURE 6 �ee�eral Fui�� i��v�r�ue, �Y 201� Licen�•es and Fines and o� FOTFEItIII"E�� 1°ro Permits, 3 ro _,I I _ _ Other'�, 2°0 Charges for_ _ � Sen,�ices, � �� � Francnise Fees, ,�� s��a ';� General Prop�rty Taxes, 59% Sales Tax�s, 2s°�o � FY 2018 Financial Results �- - _ Fiscal 2018 closed with a$17.3 million general fund increase in fund balance and maintenance of strong reserves. Year end balances are historically robust. FY 2018 results reflect favorable � OfherLocalTaxa , RevEnus from Use ofP4orteysnd Fro}rerty, variances to budget on both revenues and expenditures, Sales Invzstarrantlncum��'t�c�)y3nf��overnmantal,GasLeasesart� tax revenues were the largest contributor to positive budgetary Royaltias, Other, artd �andributdons performance, with collections exceeding budget by $2.8 million �ource: CiEyofFort4'�orth,Fr2oiscaf� (1.8% positive variance from budget). General Fund revenue growth was a vibrant 6.4%, favorably outpacing the 4.4% expenditure growth. FIGURE % General Fund Revenues And Expenditures ('000) 2018 2017 2016 2015 Revenues General Property Taxes $ 371,832 $ 345,657 $ 324,654 $ 308,037 Sales Taxes $ 157,369 $ 148,365 $ 138,497 $ 138,358 Franchise Fees $ 51,934 $ 50,078 $ 49,031 $ 53,129 Charges forServices $ 18,185 $ 19,349 $ 21,039 $ 10,919 Otherl $ 35,058 $ 32,719 $ 36,695 $ 32,267 Total Revenues $ 634,378 $ 596,168 $ 569,916 $ 542,710 Expenditures GeneralGovernment $ 63,718 $ 59,937 $ 57,274 $ 100,387 Public Safety $ 419,515 $ 395,236 $ 381,237 $ 341,817 Culture and Recreation $ 60,911 $ 61,166 $ 60,747 $ 56,673 Urban Redevelopment and Housing $ 35,921 $ 38,584 $ 35,767 $ 17,023 Othe� $ 35,201 $ 35,623 $ 30,707 $ 33,149 Total Expenditures $ 615,266 $ 590,546 $ 565,732 $ 549,049 Surplus (Deficit) from Operations $ 19,112 $ 5,622 $ 4,184 $ (6,339) Total Other Financing Sources (Uses) $ (1,860) $ (2,094) $ 3,176 $ 44,858 Net Changein Fund Balance $ 17,252 $ 3,528 $ 7,360 $ 38,519 Unassigned Fund Balance $ 107,272 $ 93,601 $ 68,436 $ 84,280 Unassigned Fund Balance as a% of General Fund Expenditures 17.4o/o 15.8% 12.1% 15.4% Source: City of Fort Worth Audited Financials i Includes Other Local Taxes, Licenses & permits, Fines & Forfeitures, Revenue from Use of Money and Property, Investment Income, Intergovernmentaf, Gas Leases and Royalties, Other, Contributions. 2 Includes Highways & Streets, Health & Welfare, Debt Service, Capital Outlay. Debt Service is largely reported in the Debt Service Fund The unassigned general fund balance levels have consistently met or exceeded the City's required minimum fund balance policy of 10%, as reflected in the table above. In FY 2018, unassigned general fund balance grew to $107.3 million, or 17.4% of General Fund expenditures which KBRA views as strong. City of Fort Worth, TX Page 8 May 21, 2019 KROLLBOND RA71NG AGENCY Frr,iiuF R 2019 Budget The City currently estimates it will close the year with another operating surplus. Favorable sales tax performance and conservative expenditure budgeting are expected to enable a$5 million operating surplus. The FY 2019 general fund budget, totals $731,2 million and refiects a 7.7% increase over the FY 2018 adopted budget, The budget lowers the property tax rate, increases cash funding of capital projects, increases pension funding and contains no use of reserves to balance operations; KBRA views the City's budgeting practices as very strong. The budget includes compensation increases for police of 3.1% plus steps, and a 3% cost increase for general employees under a pay for performance program. In addition, pay go capital spending increases by $3.8 million. Robust sales tax revenue growth is expected to continue, and the budget conservatively assumes 5,5% growth. Sales tax growth has been fueled by construction activity and population growth, The property tax roll increased 10.9%, enabling a two cent per $100 of assessed valuation reduction in the property tax rate (to $,785 per $100). This is the city's third consecutive FIGURE 9 year of a reduction in the property tax rate, and is an effort to contain the tax burden and enhance the City's competitive position for commercial Sizable Capital Paygo From Property Taxes development. The City reported to KBRA that as tax increment districts ��+erall FY 2019 Tax Rate: $,735 per $100 AV expire, and taxing levy is freed up, the City will continue to ursue r p I'�Ebi$zNILz, I property tax rate reductions. Currently there are 12 active increment i o.iss i districts in the City, which capture approximately 4% of the base (based � on City participation). The City budgets at a 98.5% collection rate of its property tax levy. In a opE�ano�5, I sign of fiscal discipline and prudent planning, the City allocates a portion d=dicatedto of the real property tax levy for pay go capital financing, a practice KBRA pa''g°,o.ossi' views favorably, KBRA notes the proposal in the state legislature to limit property tax levies — in Texas b reducin the ermitted ad'usted lev �Operation5,0.56s� Y 9 P J y growth for operations to 3.5% from the current 8% and requiring voter approval to override the limit. The growth limit is adjusted to exclude new property values, and voted debt is excluded from the tax rate calculation. In FY 2019, Fort �cu�re:FY20i9CltyofFortWorthBudget Worth's operating tax rate was 94% of its rollback rate (net of the debt rate), evidencing some ability to operate with a more constrained multiplier. Further, over 10% of Fort Worth's levy for operations is used for pay go capital funding. This affords the City additional options should a lower multiplier become enacted. City of Fort Worth, TX Page 9 May 21, 2019 �w�ce: c.iry or rorc wo�tn aud�ted financials � Includes Taxes Receivables, Loans Receivables, Interest Receivables, Due from Other Funds, Inventorles, Advances to Other Funds, Prepaids, Deposits, and Other, Long-Term Loans Receivable Z Includes Construcfion Payable, Escro�v Accounfs Payable, Accrued Interest Payable, Other, Due to Other Funds, Advances from Other Funds, Unearned Revenue KROLLBOND RATING AGENCY Liquidity Position KBRA views the City's liquidity position as strong as evidenced by robust year end balances. The FY 2018 governmental funds cash totaled $847 million, with an additional $57 million held in the Internal Service Funds. The governmental funds cash represents 236 days cash on hand at the close of FY 2018, which KBRA considers very strong. The strong liquidity position precludes the need for cash ffow borrowing. Based on the foregoing, KBRA views Fort Worth's robust reserves, history of favorable budgetary performance and strong liquidity as being consistent with a AAA Rating Determinant rating. RD 4: Municipal Resource Base KBRA views the City's resource base as very strong and diverse. Incorporated in 1873, the City of Fort Worth is approximately 350 square miles and is the county seat of Tarrant County. The City is 15th largest City in the United States and the 5th largest in Texas with a population of 876,060. The City's population has grown 45% since 2005 and 18% since 2010, growth rates that outpace both the state and nation. The City expects the population to grow by another 60% reaching approximately 1.4 million by 2045, The Dallas-Fort Worth- Arlington metropolitan had the largest growth rate among metropolitan areas in the nation between 2017 and 2018. Due to its rapid population growth, the City has embarked on various projects to meet service needs. In July of 2018 the 1.6 billion I-35W project was complete which expanded the highway's capacity to 132,000 vehicles daily from 110,000. The City is also adding two additional fire stations to support the strong growth in the City. In addition, the City, which has approximately 70,000 acres of developable land, is seeing large scale development of both residential and commercial properties. The City's resource base is further supported by tourism. According to the Fort Worth Convention and Visitors Bureau more than 6.5 million people annually visit the City, generating approximately $1.6 billion in annual economic impact and supporting more than 143,000 jobs. FIGURE ZO 2017 Age 2017 2017 Chg from Chg from Population with Chg from 2017 Poverty Chg from 2017 Income Chg from Population 2010 Dependency Z0102 B.A.Degree or 2010� Level 20102 percapita 2010 Ratio higher Fort Worth 876,060 17.7% SII.6% -0.3 29.7% 3.6 12.9% -5.0 $28,174 24.6°/a Tal'rant 2�054,475 13.0% 60.2% 1.6 31.4°/o 2.8 11.6% -2.9 $31,221 20,8% Texas 28,304,596 12.1% 62.0% 1.6 29.6% 3.7 14.7% -3.2 $29,525 23,7% United States 325,719,178 5.3% 63.1% 1.3 32.0% 3.8 13.4°/o -1.9 $32�397 24.3% Folt Worth as % NA 97.3% 94.6% 111.2% 90.2% of Tarrant Folt Worth as % NA 94.5% 100.3a/o 87.8% 95.4°/o of Texas Fort Worth as % NA 92.8% 92.8% 96.3% 87.0% of United States Sou�ce: U.S. Census Bu�eau is used as the sou�ce in order to provide a consistent comparison among different units of gove�nment. i Age dependency ratio is the sum of the populafion under 18 yrs and over 65 yrs divided by persons age IS to 64 yrs. 2 Yea� over year change shown as nominal change in percentage points. Tax Base and Demographics The City's full market value (FMV) continues to exhibit strong with a sizable 10.5% increase from 201$ to $75.9 billion in 2019 (see figure 11). Pursuant to state law, taxable property is appraised at market value. The City's tax base is largely residential and in 2019, single and multi-family properties represent 61.8% of the City's FMV followed by commercial/industrial properties at 32.6%. Residential growth has outpaced commercial/industrial growth. In 2010 single and multi-family properties made up approximately 51,9% of FMV. The 2019 FMV per capita ($86,663) continues to increase, as FMV has increased at a greater year over year rate than the population growth rate. City of Fort Worth, TX Page 10 May 21, 2019 KROLLBONO RATIh1G AGENCY FIGURE 1 � Full Market Value History � so,000 � � �o,000 � 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, 000 . 2010 ZO11 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2015 2019 Source: City of Fort Worth General Purpose Refunding and Improvements Bonds, Series 2013 and General Purpose Bonds, Series 2019 OfFcal Statements The City's top 10 taxpayers increased slightly from last year, This increase was driven by Facebook, which is associated with Winner LLC, opening over a billion-dollar data center in Fort Worth, Nonetheless, the City's top ten taxpayers remain diverse at 5.6% (see Figure 12). The City's property tax is collected by Tarrant County and since 2010 current property tax collections have been high, averaging over 98%. In FY 2018, the current property tax collection rate continued to be high at 97.9%. FIGURE 1.2 Company IWinner LLC American Airlines, Inc Oncar Electric Delivery Co. Bell Helicopter Inc. DDR/DTC City Investments LP Alcon Laboratories, Inc Wal-Mart Real Estate Bus Trust/Stores LLC AT Industrial Owner MillerCoors Carlyle/Cypress West 7th LP Source: Clty of Fort Worth Nature of Property Data Center Airlfne Utility Helicopter Real Estate Optics Mfg. Retail & Distribution W arehouse/Distributlon Distillery Real Estate 2019 Taxable Assessed Valuation $1,054,627 $578,376 $460,659 $372,731 $261,580 $253,307 $244,972 $215,604 $173, 943 $162,300 �3,778,099 Percentage of Total Taxable Assessed Valuation 1.6% 0.9% 0, 7% 0.6°/a 0.4% 0.4% 0.4°/a 0.3% 0. 3% 0.2% 5.6% City of Fort Worth, TX Page 11 May Z1, 2019 KROLLBOND RATING AGENCY The City's wealth levels are slightly lower than the State and national average. Income per capita is growing at a slightly greater rate than the State and nation at 24.6% (see Figure 10). However, the City's wealth levels are in line with the largest cities in the State (see Figure 13). FIGURE I.3 � City Population Per Capita Poverty Unemployment Income Rate 2017 2018 Mar-19 Houston 2,313,230 $ 31,175 20.6% 4.9% 4.2% 3.7% San Antonio 1,511,913 $ 24,625 17.3% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% Dallas 1,341,103 $ 32,114 18.5% 3.9% 3.7% 3.4% Austin 950,714 $ 40,323 13.1% 3.0% 2.7% 3.0% Fo�t Worth 876,060 $ 28,174 12.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% EI Paso 683,583 $ 21,908 19.3% 4.4% 4.1% 3.7% Arlington 396,407 $ 25,807 15.7% 3.8% 3.5% 3.2% Corpus Christi 325,600 $ 27,593 15.5% 5.3% 4,6% 4.2% Plano 285,312 $ 46,412 5.1% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% Laredo 261,935 $ 16,880 27.2% 4.2% 3.7% 3.8% Source: U.S Census � Bureau of Labor Statistics March 2019 are Preliminary Economic Development Activitie§ Population has grown by approximately 18% since 2010, and as the population has grown so has the economic development in the City. Alliance Texas, a 26,000-acre master-planned, mixed use community development project, located in northern Fort Worth, has added an estimated $69 billion in economic impact over its 28-year-old history, as reported in the City's FY 2018 Annual Report. In 2018, the development added more than 2,400 jobs and now has over 470 companies with employment of nearly 48,000. Other developments in the City include a new 80-acre campus for Tarleton State University opening in fall 2019 with an expected 2,500 students with the ability to serve approximately 9,000 by 2030. Residential developments include, Walsh Ranch, a 7,267-acre development which will have up to 15,000 new homes, and various other mixed-use development projects. The City's new 14,000 seat Dickies Arena is scheduled to open November 2019, and is expected to host 130 events annually including of the month-long Fort Worth Stock Show rodeo (which first started in Fort Worth in 1896), the 2022 NCAA men's basketball first and second rounds, the 2020-22 NCAA Women's gymnastics championship, and the 2020- 22 American Athletic Conference men's basketball championships. The arena will have the capacity to accommodate conventions, exhibit events, business meetings, and private receptions in spaces up to 91,315 square feet. In addition to the events held inside the arena and the neighboring Will Rogers Memorial Campus's 5.8-acre plaza space can host outdoor events for up to 3,000 guests. Since 2010, the number of annual building permits issued in the City has grown by 40% while the estimated value has increased by over 100% to $3.5 billion in 2018. To keep up with the economic growth, the City's voters approved a $399.5 million bond package in May 2018 which includes propositions to build and repair roads, new park amenities, and public safety facility improvements. Fi�uRe 14 is,aou 14,000 12,000 v 10,000 � � � � N 8,000 � a 6,000 � 4,000 2,000 0 2010 Building Permits r--' �, � � � 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: City of Fort Worth Issuzd -Estima[zA Valuz a,soo,000 a a,000,aoo � ' 0 t 3,500,000 ~ 3,000,000 2,5��,a�� 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,040 500,000 0 2018 City of Fort Worth, TX Page 12 May 21, Z019 F(ROLL BOND RATING AGENCY The City is served by Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport ("DFW"), bonds rated by KBRA, which ranked 4th among commercial service airports in enplanements in 2017, behind Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International, Los Angeles International, and Chicago O'Hare International. Total enplanements continue to grow at DFW growing by 22,3% since 2010 (see Figure 15) On December 31, 2018, TEXRaiI opened providing a 27-mile rail line from downtown Fort Worth through Tarrant County and ending at DFW terminal B, The City projects that the new rail line will attract 8,000 daily riders by the end of the first year and up to 14,000 by 2035, In addition to the City's proximity to DFW, the City operates three private aviation airports, and is served by six major railroad systems with service to cities such as Chicago, St, Louis, Little Rock, Dallas, San Antonio and Los Angeles. FIGURE I.S N ao,oao D � 35,000 = 30,000 F 25,000 20,p00 15,000 10,000 5,000 Dallas Fort Worth International Airport Total Enplanments 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Saurre: Oallas Por[ Worth International Airporl CAFR Employment Since 2010 the City's unemployment rate has been slightly lower than the State's and that trend continued in 2018. However, preliminary figures from March 2019 show the City's unemployment slightly greater than the State's at 3.6% compared to 3.5% for the State, KBRA does note, that historically, in March the City has a slightly higher unemployment rate. The City has seen its employment grow by 25.1% since 2010 which is a greater rate than the state and nation at 18.4% and 12%, respectively. Employment growth has been driven by gains in employment in trade, transportation, utilities, education and health services, leisure and hospital, and government sectors, which collectively represent 62,1% of total employment in the Fort-Worth-Arlington MSA (see Figure 17). FIGURE 16 aso,aoo ��w,aao 350,000 3C0,000 '� 2=0poo r & 2C0,000 w iso,oaa 100,ao0 so,wo 0 Fort Worth Employment vs Unemployment � I I ����M ���w� so,a�o 25,Na zo,cuo I5,000 io,a�o S,aoa 0 .005 2006 2007 2409 ?009 2010 2013 '.Ul. ?Ol3 2014 Z015 2016 2017 2010 - Fort l'larth Em l0 �m2n[ � F rt\V Ih U I FIGURE 1% Employment By Sector Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Division vs United States Government OtherSzrvicas ��. LeisureandHospitality . . Education and Heal[h Szrvices _. __ _ __—_. Professlonal and 6usiness Szrvices . _ ._ . , Financial Activities �� Information � . Trade, Transportation, and Utilities . _ . M1lanufacturing . Plining, Logging, and Construdion �^ OA4b 5.0°s 1U.0% i5.o°/u ■ Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Pletropolitan Division 20.0 % 25.0°S 30.0°,a United States p� o or nemyoYrnent Source:Bureauo(La6or5tatistics Saurce: 9u�eau af La6o� 5ta!!stla In addition to employment opportunities located in the City, residents of Fort Worth have access to employment markets in Dallas and Arlington. In 2017, approximately 42.6% of residents work outside of the City with the mean commuting time of just under 30 minutes. The City's top employers have grown from 12.3% of total employment in FY 2010 to being 23,4% in FY 2018. Top employers within City limits include the City itself, the American Airlines corporate headquarters, and National Air Station (NAS) Fort Worth Joint Reserve base. American is scheduled to open their new 1.8 million square foot headquarters in May 2019 and the headquarters on any given day could be home to approximately 12,000 employees. City of Fort Worth, TX Page 13 May 21, 2019 KROLLBOND RA7IPIG AGENCY Based on the foregoing, KBRA has revised the Rating Determinant rating for the City's municipal resource base to AA+ from AA, recognizing the City's growing and diverse resource base and improving wealth metrics. This rating determinant rating also reflects the City's wealth levels that are lower than the State and the Nation, Banicruptcy Analysis To be a debtor under the municipal bankruptcy provisions of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code (Chapter 9), a local governmental entity must, among other things, qualify under the definition of "municipality" in the Banl<ruptcy Code, and must also be specifically authorized to file a bankruptcy petition by the State in which it is located. KBRA has consulted outside counsel on bankruptcy matters and the following represents our understanding of the material bankruptcy issues relevant to the City. The City is a political subdivision and municipal corporation of the State of Texas organized and existing under state law, and thus is a"municipality" as defined under the Bankruptcy Code. In addition, Texas state law specifically authorizes any municipality in the state that has the power to incur indebtedness through the action of the municipality's governing body to file a Chapter 9 petition, Thus, the City has the authority under Texas state law to incur indebtedness and, hence, it is specifically authorized under Texas state law to file a Chapter 9 petition, subject of course to the further threshold requirements in Federal law (the Bankruptcy Code) for commencement of a Chapter 9 case. The principal of and interest on the Bonds and the Notes are payable from a direct and continuing ad valorem tax levied by the City, within the limits prescribed by law, upon all taxable property in the City. If the City were to file a petition commencing a Chapter 9 proceeding, though Chapter 9 provides for post-petition recognition of (i) a security interest represented by a pledge of specific special tax' revenues or municipal enterprise revenues (each "special revenues") and also (ii) a statutory lien on revenues pledged for municipal obligations, in contrast, the pledge of general ad valorem property taxes for a general purposes obligation of a municipality is not recognized as a security interest or lien that survives the filing of a petition under Chapter 9. Accordingly, because (a) the funds pledged to pay the Bonds and the Notes are not from a separate, dedicated source of revenues that meets the definition of `�special revenues" under Chapter 9, and (b) there is no statutory lien imposed on the pledged ad valorem tax revenues levied to pay the Bonds or the Notes, holders of the Bonds and the Notes would likely be treated as unsecured creditors of the City. Conclusion KBRA assigns an AA+ rating with a Positive Outlook to the City of Fort Worth General Purpose Bonds, Series 2019 and Tax Notes, Series 2019 and affirms the AA+ rating and Positive Outlook for the General Purpose Bonds, Series 2018 and Tax Notes, Series 2018. c0 Copyright 2019, Kroll Bond Rating Agency, Inc., and/or its licensors and affiliates (together, "KBRA"), All rights reserved. All information contained herein is proprietary to KBRA and is protected by copyright and other intellectual property law, and none of such information may be copied or otherwise reproduced, further transmitted, redistributed, repackaged or resold, in whole or in part, by any person, without KBRA's prior express written consent. Information, including any ratings, is licensed by KBRA under these conditions. Misappropriation or misuse of KBRA information may cause serious damage to KBRA for which money damages may not constitute a sufficient remedy; KBRA shall have the right to obtain an injunction or other equitable relief in addition to any other remedies. The statements contained herein are based solely upon the opinions of KBRA and the data and information available to the authors at the time of publication. All information contained herein is obtained by KBRA from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable; however, all information, including any ratings, is provided ��AS IS". 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Please read KBRA's full disclaimers and terms of use at www,l<bra.com. City of Fort Worth, TX Page 14 May 21, 2019 S&P Global Ratings www.spglobal.com/rati ngsdirect RatingsDirect° ������°�e Fo�t Worth, `Texas; Gene�al Obligation Primary Credit Analyst: Stephen Doyle, Dallas (1) 214-765-5886; stephen.doyle@spglobal.com Secondary Contact: Andy A Hobbs, Dallas + 1(972) 367 3345; Andy.Hobbs@spglobal.com Table Oi Contents ............................................................................................................. Rationale Outloolc Related Research May 24, 2019 1 ��z��.�����o Fort �IlTorth, Texas; Gener°al Obli�ation US$105.355 mil Gen purp bnds ser 2019 dtd 06/01/2019 due 03/O1/2039 Long Term Rating AA/Stable US$8.745 mii tax notes ser 2019 dtd 06/O1/2019 due 03/O1/2026 Long Tenn Rating Fort Worth GO Long Term Rating Rationale AA/Stable AA/Stable New New Affirmed S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'AA' long-term rating to the City of Fort Worth, Texas' series 2019 general purpose bonds and series 2019 tax notes. At the same times, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'AA' long-term rating on the city's limited tax general obligation (GO) debt outstanding. The outlook on all ratings is stable. Both the general purpose bonds and the tax notes are payable from an annual ad valorem tax levied, within the limits prescribed by law, on all taxable properry within the city. The maximum allowable rate in Texas is $2.50 per $100 of assessed value (AV) for all purposes, with the portion dedicated to debt service limited to $1.50. The city's total tax rate is well below the maximum, at 78.5 cents, 15.5 cents of which is dedicated to debt service. Based on the application of our criteria, "Issue Credit Ratings Linked To U.S. Public Finance Obligors' Creditworthiness," published Jan. 22, 2018, we view the limited-tax GO debt pledge on par with the city's general creditworthiness. The ad valorem t�es are not levied on a narrower or distinctly different t� base, and there are no limitations on the fungibility of resources available for the payment of debt service. The series 2019 general purpose bond proceeds will fund capital projects. The series 2019 tax note proceeds will go toward the purchase of fire safery equipment. The rating reflects our view of Fort Worth's: • Adequate economy, with access to a broad and diverse metropolitan statistical area (MSA); • Very strong management, with strong financial policies and practices under our Financial Management Assessment (FMA) methodology; • Weak budgetary performance, with operating deficits in the general fund and at the total governmental fund level in fiscal 2018; • Very strong budgetary flexibility, with an available fund balance in fiscal 2018 of 16% of operating expenditures; • Very strong liquidity, with total government available cash at 85.8% of total governmental fund expenditures and lO.Ox governmental debt service, and access to external liquidity that we consider exceptional; • Very weak debt and contingent liability profile, with debt service carrying charges at 8.6% of expenditures and net direct debt that is 122.1% of total governmental fund revenue, as well as a large pension and other postemployment www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect May 24, 2019 2 Summary: Fort Worth, Texas; General Obligation benefits (OPEB) obligation. We recognize the city has made revisions to its pension plan, however, it will take time to determine whether those recent changes will sufficiently address the obligation; and ^ Strong institutional framework score. Economy We consider Fort Worth's economy adequate. The city, with an estimated population of 848,460, is located in Denton, Parker, and Tarrant counties in the Dallas-For•t Worth-Arlington MSA, which we consider to be broad and diverse. The city has a projected per capita effective buying income of 88.6% of the national level and per capita market value of $79,866. Overall, the city's market value grew by 10.6% over the past year to $67.8 billion in 2019. The weight-averaged unemployment rate of the counties was 3.5% in 2018. Fort Worth anchors the Dallas-Fort Worth MSA. The city's local economy remains one of the most robust in the state, led by health care, professional services, the aerospace and defense-related industries, and construction, all of which have increasingly offset the region's cyclical energy sector. The city is also host to Texas Christian University, Texas Wesleyan University, a robust community college system, and other higher education institutions. Fort Worth's estimated population is 850,000, with a daytime population of more than 1 million, reflecting the employment opportunities available throughout the city. In our opinion, recent and projected building-permit activity will likely lead to additional tax-base growth during the next two years. In the long term, we believe the city is well positioned for further growth due to the significant amount of land that is currently undeveloped, but developable within city limits, and a larger amount of land that is undeveloped within Fort Worth's extraterritorial jurisdiction. Population and market value have increased approximately 7.0% and 43.9%, respectively, over the past five years. Given past trends and forward-looldng expectations, we believe the city's economy will continue to show positive growth over the next two years, which we view as a credit strength. Budgetary performance Fort Worth's budgetary performance is weak, in our opinion. Following our adjustments, the city had operating deficits of 3.2% of expenditures in the general fund and of 7.5% across all governmental funds in fiscal 2018. We adjusted for recurring revenues in and out of the general fund and other governmental funds, as well as for capital outlay expenditures funded through debt proceeds. We also adjusted expenditures to account for the difference between what the city contributed to its Employees' Retirement Fund and the actuarially determined contribution (ADC), which amount to an additional $38 million of expenditures in fiscal 2018. In our view, if a local government is maldng annual contributions to its pension plan that are below actuarially determined levels, budgetary performance is likely overstated. Subsequently, this led to a net operating deficit of about $21 million in the general fund and $88 million across all governmental funds in fiscal 2018. Prior to our adjustments, for fiscal 2018, the city posted a surplus in the general fund due to positive sales t� and property tax growth. More than half (58%) of general fund revenues come from property taxes, while 25% comes from sales taxes. The positive trends are expected to continue and create an environment that partially offsets the cost increases associated with its pension plan. The fiscal 2019 generai fund budget is balanced, with both revenues and expenditures projected to be about $687 www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect May 24, 2019 3 Summary: Fort Worth, Texas; General Obligation million (including transfers). Based on year-to-date results, revenues and expenditures indicate a surplus in the general fund of roughly $5 million. If actuals hold true, Fort Worth could experience a positive net change in fund balance, but that does not take into account S&P Global Ratings' adjustment for growing pension costs. The 2019 budget adopted by city officials reflects a 1.5% increase in the city's year-over-year contribution rate to the ciry's pension fund. We estimate that even with the 1.5% citywide increase nd the additional contributions approved earlier this year, the city will still experience a contribution deficiency between the ADC and its actual contribution in the current fiscal year. Officials indicate that contributions to the plan will very likely not meet the ADC for the next two fiscal years, even when incorporating the additional contribution increases that are set to occur during this time. Fort Worth is in the planning phases for its fiscal 2020 budget cycle, but will incorporate these increases. The increases are also included in the city's forward-looking financiai forecasts. For fisca12020, operating results in the general fund show a$10 million deficit at this time. Relative to the size of the budget, a$10 million deficit is almost breakeven and projections might prove to be conservative, but the recently approved additional contribution increases will likely further pressure the budget. As a result, we expect budgetary performance to remain weak over the next two years, and that performance, before our internal adjustments, will continue to be masked by future underfunding of the ADC. Budgetary flexibility Fort Worth's budgetary flexibility is very strong, in our view, with an available fund balance in fisca12018 of 16% of operating expenditures, or $109.8 million. Transfers to other governmental funds and enterprise funds, along with the ADC deficiency, are included in the city's operating expenditures for purposes of our calculations. The city typically transfers funds from its general fund to its capital project fund annually in order to maintain and invest in Fort Worth's infrastructure. This transfer did not occur in fisca12018, and we did not adjust for this as we had in previous analyses'. Fort Worth's available fund balance at year-end fiscal 2018 was nominally the largest over the past six years. On a nominal basis, the available fund balance increased in fiscal 2018 to $109.8 million (17.8% of unadjusted operating expenditures), from about $93.6 million (15.8% of unadjusted operating expenditures) in fiscal 2017. Including adjustments to expenditures, the available general fund balance equates to 16.8% of operating expenditures, a level that we still consider very strong. Despite the substantial year-over-year increase in the fund balance in each of the past two fiscal years, we believe Fort Worth's budgetary flexibility could be pressured if its pension liability continues to grow. Since fiscal 2012, reserves have been at or below 15% of expenditures until fiscal 2017. For fiscal 2019, projections indicate another addition to fund balance of about $5 million, which would likely maintain reserves at a level in excess of 15% of expenditures, which we consider very strong, depending on final operating expenditures. Moving forward, we believe management will adhere to its formal reserve policy, and that reserves will not decrease below 10% of operating expenditures over the next two years. Liquidity In our opinion, Fort Worth's liquidity is very strong, with total government available cash at 85.8% of total governmental fund expenditures, and lO.Ox governmental debt service in 2018. In our view, the city has exceptional www.spgtobal.com/ratingsdirect May 24, 2019 4 Summary: Fort Worth, Texas; General Obligation access to external liquidity if necessary. Fort Worth has, in our view, exceptional market access having issued GO, utility revenue, and certificates of obligation on a frequent basis. The city has four privately placed agreements, with a total par outstanding of about $39 million. Upon review of the legal requirements, we do not consider the private placements as a contingent liquidity risk, as there are no permissive covenants, acceleration provisions, or cross-default provisions that could result in an unanticipated call on liquidity. The city's investments are highly liquid and regarded as cash equivalents in the audit, and the majority of all investments have a maximum maturity date of five years. Management We view the city's management as very strong, with strong financial policies and practices under our FMA methodology, indicating financial practices are strong, well embedded, and lilcely sustainable. The budgeting process incorporates an analysis of past trends related to primary revenue and expenditure items. Budget assumptions do not include making the ADC to the city's pension plan, which we view as a risk and is a somewhat optimistic view of future expenditures. Management completes a comprehensive review of financial performance on a monthly basis, and p'rovides semi-annual reports on financial performance to the city council. The governing body is able to amend the budget at any time with council approval. As part of the budget process, management produces a five-year financial forecast to illustrate the long-term effect of current-year budget decisions. The five-year financial forecasts include the city's planned contribution rate increases. Should these contributions fall short of ineeting the ADC in future years, even with the recent increased contributions from employees and benefit changes, we may no longer view this as a credible planning tool for long-term financial decision malflng and it couid affect the FMA. A formal investment policy, focusing on cash management and investment strategy, also exists; management reports results to the city council quarterly. Adopted debt policies focus on the rypes of debt instruments officials can use, how much debt they can issue, and what type of structure they should use. Concerning reserves, the policy states management will strive to maintain an undesignated general fiuid balance equal to at least 10% of the current-year budget for operating and maintenance items, with a goal to reach 16% of expenditures. For capital planning, management is required to review its capital improvement needs and the city's infrastructure status annually. An adopted five-year capital improvement plan is annually produced, and shows all projects and corresponding funding sources. Debt In our view, Fort Worth's debt and contingent liability profile is very weak. Total governmental fund debt service is 8.6% of total governmental fund expenditures, and net direct debt is 122.1% of total governmental fund revenue. Revenue-backed debt supported through the city's enterprise fund has been adjusted in our direct debt-to-revenue calculations. Following the sale of the 2019 issuances, Fort Worth will have $369.5 million of authorized but unissued debt remaining, all of it fr•om its nearly $400 million 2018 bond program that was approved by voters in May of 2018. Officials anticipate issuing the remaining authorized debt over the next four fiscal years, with an issuance occurring each year. Given future debt plans, we expect Fort Worth's debt profile to remain very weak during the next two years. www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect May 24, 2019 5 Summary: Fort Worth, Texas; Genera( Obligation Pension In our opinion, a credit weakness is Fort Worth's large pension and OPEB obligation. We recognize the city has revised its pension plan, however, it will take time to determine whether those recent changes will sufficiently address the obligation. Despite cost-saving pension modifications made in early calendar 2019, we believe Fort Worth's large unfunded pension liability/poor-funded status, lack of funding discipline, and high actual pension costs as a percent of total government expenditures wiIl continue to mask the city's budgetary performance and potentially pressure the budget during the outlook period. We do not foresee material improvements within our two-year outlook horizon. Fort Worth's combined required pension and actual OPEB contributions totaled 13.6% of total governmental fund expenditures in 2018. Of that amount, 11.5% represented required contributions to pension obligations, and 2.4% represented OPEB payments. The city's agent multiple-empioyer defined benefit pension plan, the Employee's Retirement Fund of the City of Fort Worth, has experienced a steady decline in funded status since 2010, primarily due to contributions less than the actuarial recommendations. Contributions to the ciry's pension plan are statutorily defined and have been well below the ADC in recent years, causing further deterioration of the plan's funded status. As of Jan. 1, 2010, the plan's actuarial funded ratio was 81.2%. As of the most recent actuarial valuation (Sept. 30, 2018), the plan was extremely weakly funded on a Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) basis, at 42.9%, with a net pension liabiliry of $3.1 billion. The city made 71.0% of its ADC in 2018. GASB liabilities were calculated using a single discount rate of 7.75%, which we view as representing a target asset portfolio that contains high market risk. Aside from its pension benefits, Fort Worth provides certain OPEB for retired employees. As of Sept. 30, 2018, the plan was 7.23% funded based on a single discount rate of 3.53%. The city discontinued OPEB for employees hired after 2008. At Sept. 30, 2018, the OPEB liability was $883 million, down from $940 million in the previous year. Recent Modifications Several years ago, recognizing the long-term liability as an issue, city officials took steps to improve the overall fiscal health of its pension system. In December 2018, council approved additional changes to the city's pension plan. Plan members approved these changes in February 2019. In addition, changes were made to the plan's actuarial assumptions in March 2019. The mayor and city council administer the plan, defining benefits, setting contribution rates as well as funding contributions. The governing body has the ability to alter benefits, but not increase employee contributions without a successfizl employee vote. Although we believe these benefit, contribution, and actuarial changes will better position the city to address its pension liability, we do not expect the plan's funded status to improve in the near term, and we do not believe the city's contribution costs, as a percent of its total governmental expenditures, will decline. The changes approved by members in February 2019 include the elimination of cost of living adjustments for ail service credits earned or purchased on or after July 20, 2019, and employee and employer contribution increases. These contribution changes include a fixed contribution increase, whereby the city contribution rate will increase by 4.5% in July of 2019, police officer contributions will increase by 4.4% over a three-year period, firefighters will contribute3.8% more over a two-year period, and general employees will begin contributing between 1.1%-1.8% beginning in July 2019. Beginning in 2022, if the ADC remains in excess of actual contributions to the plan, a www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect May 24, 2019 6 Summary: Fort Worth, Texas; General Obtigation risk-sharing mechanism will go into effect and increase contributions further for the city and all employee groups, with a cap equal to 4.0% of payroll. In fiscal 2018, Fort Worth contributed 19.74% of retirement-eligible wages to the plan for general employees and firefighters, and 20.46% for police officers. With annual budgeted increases in the city's contribution rates in fiscal years 2018 and 2019 (2.0% total) and additional increases beginning in fiscal 2020, we still expect contributions to fall short of the ADC during the next several years, notwithstanding any other changes. As a result, the effective city contribution rate is expected to amortize the unfunded liability over a long 75-year period, as a level percentage of payroll. Payroll growth is assumed to be 3.0% per year. Actuarial changes were also made in March 2019, and include a reduction in the discount rate to 7.00% from 7.75% as well as the use of an updated mortality assumption that uses generational mortality improvements for projections. These actuarial assumptions will likely result in an increase in lhe pension liability and thus a decline in the funded ratio and an increase in the ADC beginning in fiscal 2020. Officials indicate that after these assumption changes are incorporated the new employee and city contribution rates will not fully amortize the pension liability within 30 years, but instead within 44 years after incorporating the risk-sharing mechanism. Strong institutional framework The institutional framework score for Texas municipalities is strong. Outlook The stable outloolc reflects our view that the city will likely continue to see strong economic growth and taxable value gains due to its participation in the Dallas-Fort Worth MSA. The outlook also reflects our view that the city's recent pension modifications show that officials are committed to reducing the plan's significant net pension liability through a combination of contribution increases, benefit changes, and actuarial assumption changes, which may ease long-term budgetary pressures, even though these pressures will likely persist, or potentially worsen, during the two-yeai• outlook period. The full effect of the recent changes is not lrnown at this time, but we do not expect these changes to improve the net pension liability or the plan's funded status during the outlook period. At this time, we do not expect to change the rating within the next two years. Downside scenario Assuming all other rating factors remain stable or improve, if the city's recent pension modifications do not show progress towards malflng the ADC, or if the net pension liability continues to grow after the recent actuarial changes are incorporated, we cotild lower the rating. We could also lower the rating if continued contribution increases further pressure the city's budgetary performance that causes a reduction in its budgetary flexibility or budgetary performance, or a revision in our view of the ciry's long-term financial planning as reflected in our FMA. Upside scenario While we recognize that the city has made modifications to its pension, we do not expect a material improvement in the funded status of the plan, and we do not expect the city to make the full ADC during the two-year outlook period. However, we could raise the rating if there were a significant improvement in the pension funded status, and the city begins making its ADC, without reserve levels deteriorating, and the city experienced continued economic improvement that results in economic metrics that are comparable with those of higher-rated peers, assuming all other www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect May24,2019 7 Summary: Fort Worth, Texas; General Obligation rating factors improve or remain stable. Related Research • S&P Public Finance Local GO Criteria: How We Adjust Data For Analytic Consistency, Sept. 12, 2013 • Alternative Financing: Disclosure Is Critical To Credit Analysis In Public Finance, Feb. 18, 2014 • Incorporating GASB 67 And 68: Evaluating Pension/OPEB Obligations Under Standard & Poor's U.S. Local Government GO Criteria, Sept. 2, 2015 � Local Government Pension And Other Postemployment Benefits Analysis: A Closer Look, Nov.8, 2017 • 2018 Update Of Institutional Framework For U.S. Local Governments �- � � � � Fort Worth GO Long Term Rating AA/Stable Affirmed Fort Worth GO Long Term Rating AA/Stable Affirmed Fort Worth GO Long Term Rating Fort Worth GO Long Term Rating Fort Worth GO Long Term Rating Fort Worth GO Long Term Rating AA/Stable AA/Stable AA/Stable AA/Stable Affirmed Affirmed Affirmed Affirmed Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjecHves used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. 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STANDARD & POOR'S, S&P and RATINGSDIRECT are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financiat Services LLC. www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect May 24, 2019 9 S&P Global Rati ngs RatingsDirect° Fort UVorth, `Texas; CP; V1Tater/Sev�er Primary Credit Analyst: Theodore A Chapman, Dallas (1) 214-871-1401; theodore.chapman@spglobal.com Secondary Contact: Omid Rahmani, Dallas + 1(214) 765 5880; omid.rahmani@spglobal.com Tab�e Of Contents Rationale Outlook www.sp�lobal.com/ratin�sdirect May 23, 2019 1 F°ort V1Torth, '�'�xas; CP, �Tater/Se�ver US$96.09 mil wtr and swr sys rev bnds ser 2019 dtd 06/O1/2019 due 02/15/2049 Long Term Rating Fort Worth Long Term Rating Rafiionale AA+/Stable New AA+/Stable Affirmed S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'AA+' rating to Fort Worth, Texas' series 2019 water and sewer system revenue bonds. At the same time, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'AA+' rating on the city's senior-lien water and sewer system revenue debt. The outlook is stable. The rating reflects our opinion of the system's general creditworthiness, including Fort Worth's extremely strong enterprise risk profile and very strong financial rislc profile. The city's first-lien net water and sewer system revenue pledge secures the bonds. We understand officials will use bond proceeds to fund approved projects in the city's capital improvement plan (CIP). Fort Worth administers a citywide plan with separate funds for police, fire and nonuniformed employees that, as of fiscal year-end 2018, was about 43% funded, down from 58.5% at the end of 2016 and on a path to insolvency. In response, the city appointed a review committee that recommended proposals that ultimately were approved by both the ciry council and a vote of employees. The proposals included both cost-containment measures (e.g., establishing conditions precedent before any cost-of-living increase would become effective), as well as increased contributions from both the city and employees (both uniformed and nonuniformed). Still, we understand that the revised discount rate assumption is 7.0%, which we view as somewhat aggressive, especially after a net market value decline during calendar 2018 of 3%. Further, the city does not expect to amortize the liability within a 30-year horizon, and it may still be several more years before it can fully fund its actuarially determined contribution (ADC). Just under 11% of the $3.1 billion total net pension liability reflects the water and sewer system, which limits the system's exposure. Generally, we have seen that for large municipal utilities it is the capital program, not pension or related liabilities, that generates the need for rate adjustments. IVonetheless, in our view, the overall underfunded position currently creates headwinds to achieving a 'AAA' rating. When we stress management's already conservative financial projections for the water and sewer fund, we find the utility system is likely to maintain sufficient financial capacity for its ongoing operating budget and capital commitments while absorbing a likely increase in the contribution for its allocable share of the pension and other postemployment benefits (OPEBs). Although the city cannot look to its wholesale customers to avail itself of the pension problems, wholesale sales help stabilize the system's total operating revenues, which we also view as a credit positive. We base our assumption of continued financial capacity of the water and sewer fund on: • The water and sewer fund's share of the total liability remaining about the same; www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect May 23, 2019 2 Fort Worth, Texas; CP; Water/Sewer • The financial interplay between the water and sewer fund and Fort Worth's general fund not changing in terms of both transfers and permitting the utility to build and maintain available reserves; and The CIP remaining similar in size and scope. The CIP, which identifies about $1.08 billion in commitments through fiscal 2024 and will be approximately 64% debt-funded, is not being pressured by any regulatory actions or environmental compliance enforcements, unlike that of many comparably sized systems. Transfers of surplus net revenues to the general fund are limited and defined. While officials can use surplus net revenues for any lawful purpose, an over-reliance on transfers out to shore up shortfalls in the general, pension, or other funds would likely weaken the all-in debt service coverage (DSC) assessment. All-in DSC is S&P Global Ratings' internally adjusted DSC calculation that includes all debt regardless of lien or accounting treatment, and hypothetically treats some recurring debt-like obligations, such as demand and capacity payments, as if they were actually city-issued debt. The calculation also includes all net transfers fi-om the udliry fund as if they were operating expenses because, in our view, they are a recurring use of utility operating revenues. If we believe the transfers out were associated with a liquidity crisis, we would view this to be negative extraordinary intervention by the general fund and equalize the utility and general obligation (GO) ratings. OUtI00k The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Fort Worth's willingness to adjust rates, including passing through wholesale cost pressures, will be key to rating stabiliry. The city's continued economic growth and diversity, limiting cyclicality from sectors such as energy and commodities, as well as a housing market that we do not view to be in a bubble, are factors that enhance rating stability, in our opinion. Upside scenario Given that the pension reform measures have only recently been implemented and that it could be some time before the overall funding levels materially improve, a'AAA' rating is not likely within our two-year outlook horizon. Still, a higher rating would be predicated, in large part, on sustained improvement in addressing the pension liability while still maintaining strong operations and similar financial capacity. Downside scenario Downward pressure on the rating would most likely come from scenarios such as an increased reliance on the utility's surplus net revenues by the general government either for either subsidizing general fund operations or to shore up fiduciary funds beyond even that for which the system is responsible. A downgrade could also follow a sharp increase in debt if Fort Worth were to receive a consent decree or other large-scale requirement, or evidence of what we would view as deferred maintenance or deferring on key decisions that could help sustain the current financial profile. Factors that support the water and sewer system's enterprise risk profile include the following: • A broad and diverse service area that includes retail and wholesale service, in a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) we consider strong; • The system's strong operational profile, with raw water provided by the Tarrant Regional Water District (TRWD), reducing some of the financial and operational risk to the city; and www.sp�Iobal.com/ratin�sdirect May 23, 2019 3 Fort Worth, Texas; CP; Water/Sewer A pass-through of wholesale rate increases, with a regular review and as-necessary adjustment of base rates, helping preserve the system's financial risk profile. The system serves a deep and diverse customer base with a total population estimate of 1.1 million, including Fort Worth and more than 30 communities in much of Tarrant County. In addition to the almost 255,000 retail metered accounts, wholesale revenues will provide about 20% of total budgeted 2019 operating revenues. Despite that, the system's 101argest retaii customers contributed less than 5% to operating revenues, indicating no revenue concentration. The Fort Worth MSA remains one of the more robust in the state, led by health care, professional services, and construction, sectors which have more than offset the energy sector's wealrness since the drop in commodity prices. The city is also home to Texas Christian University, Texas Wesleyan University, a robust communiry college system, and numerous other institutions of higher learning. Therefore, the median household effective buying income (MHHEBI) for Tarrant County is approximately in line with the nation's. The counry's unemployment rate was 3.3% as of March 2019, below the national average. We view the economic fundamentals as likely to remain an identified area of strength. In the long term, Fort Worth is well positioned for further growth due to the significant undeveloped-but-developable land within city limits and a larger amount of undeveloped land within its extraterritorial jurisdiction. The city purchases raw water from TRWD before treating it at five city-owned water treatment plants with a combined 500 million-gallon-per-day (mgd) treatment capacity. Capacity is more than sufficient to meet 2017's 263 million gallon peak day demand. The larger focus is on enhancing the long-term water supply. The extraordinary rainfall in May 2015 by itself replenished the district's reservoirs to--and in some cases even above--capacity. Even before that, however, the city had water conservation-oriented rates, outdoor watering and public education programs, and other resource management policies for years. Given the MSA's robust economic performance, TRWD is gearing up its efforts for future growth. This includes the integrated pipeline project (IPL), a joint venture with Dallas to move water from a reservoir southeast of the region. The district is projecting the first phase of the IPL to be operational by 2021, at an eventual cost of about $2.4 billion; based on capacity allocations, about $1.4 billion of that would be allocable to the district. The city generally accounts for 55%-60% of TRWD's annual operating revenues. Given the magnitude of the district's capital commitments, Fort Worth is anticipating wholesale water costs will continue increasing substantially, from $1.28 per 1,000 gallons currently. The city's wastewater system is an operational strength, in our view. Its main treatment plant has 166 mgd of rated capacity, although a portion of the waste is sent to Trinity River Authority's (TRA) 11.5-mgd-capacity Denton Creek and Central Regional facilities by way of a contractual commitment to TRA. The facilities meet the city's 114-mgd average flow. Several years ago, Fort Worth executed an agreement with the state environmental agency that pre-empts any unfunded mandates in exchange for the city increasing levels of collection system maintenance, repairs, and reporting. Furthermore, the wastewater treatment plant permit does not expire until the end of the decade. All of this precludes any ldnd of regulatory-driven CIP projects that could further stress finances. Because of the strong operational profile, the city's user rates are very affordable, in our view. Based on S&P Global Ratings' universal assumption of 6,000 gallons of both residential water and sewer service, the current bill is about $69, www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect May 23, 2019 4 Fort Worth, Texas; CP; Water/Sewer or a modest 1.8% of MHHEBI. The most recent rate increases- just over 4% each for water and sewer--took effect January 2018; the ciry did not adjust rates for fiscal 2019. Management has a goal to review rates regularly and adjust the base rate as necessary, in addition to fully recovering any wholesale cost increases. We believe this is an important strength that lends itself to credit stability. Based on our operational management assessment (OMA), we view Fort Worth as a'2' on a scale of'1' to'6', '1' being the strongest. This indicates, in our view, that operational and organizational goals are generally well aligned, even if some challenges exist. The OMA of good includes a firm, long-term water supply by way of TRWD; a collaborative agreement with the state environmental regulator by which Fort Worth has a proactive capacity; management; operations and maintenance program for the sewer system; and a rate review at least annually. The city has also been a regional leader in water conservation and drought management, and has a lost water percentage that is in line with that of peer cities but remains a focus of both the operating budget via an aggressive leak detection program and the CIP via main repiacements. Financial risk Fiscal 2018 ended with annual DSC of over 2.Ox, and by S&P Global Ratings' adjusted "all-in DSC" an extremely strong 1.68x. This exceeded management's policy to set rates to achieve at least 1.5x DSC before transfers to the general fund. We have reviewed management's forecast that indicates all-in DSC will—very conservatively—approach just under 1.4x, and based on our stress scenarios, would most likely be no lower than 1.2x. Liquidity continues to increase steadily, with $155.9 million in total available reserves, equivalent to 146 days of operating expenses in fiscal 2018. Fort Worth's policy is to maintain working capital equivalent to 25% of recurring operating expenses, and cash on hand of 62-250 days of operations. The five-year CIP (through fiscal 2024) estimates that pay-as-you-go sources will contribute 37% of the total funding, so we expect that there could be some year-to-year rise and run to available reserves, but that the general trend will be in line with management's policies. The city's five-year CIP has identified approximately $1.08 billion in capital projects through fiscai 2024, Regular use of additional debt is anticipated, inciuding state loans for both distribution and collection system infrastructure. We understand Fort Worth might also issue parity revenue bonds annually, but this will depend on internal priorities and not regulatory mandates. The city aiso has in place a$150 million commercial paper (CP) program that it could choose to use as an interim funding mechanism. Based on our financial management assessment (FMA), we view Fort Worth to be a'2' on a scale of ' 1' to '6', ' 1' being the strongest. We have revised the score from '1'. The revision reflects the overall albatross of the pension's net position on the city, specificaily the recent trend of underfunding the ADC. Still, an FMA of good indicates that practices are generally well embedded, and likely sustainable. The management team maintains most of the best practices we believe are critical to supporting credit quality and these are well embedded in the government's daily operations and practices. Formal policies support many of these activities, adding to the likelihood that these practices will continue and transcend changes in the operating environment or personnel. This includes comprehensive long-term planning for both the operational and capital budgets, regular monitoring of year-to-date and budget-to-actual results, and policies spealdng to minimum working capital levels. We consider bond provisions neutral to credit quality, especially given current financial metrics are maintained weli www.sp�lobal.com/ratin�sdirect May 23, 2019 5 Fort Worth, Texas; CP; Water/Sewer above the rate covenant; these equal lx annual parity debt service. The additional bonds test equals 1.1x parity maximum annual debt service (MADS) and 1.25x average annual parity debt service. Pensions The city's agent multiple-employer defined-benefit pension plan, the Employee's Retirement Fund of the City of Fort Worth, has experienced a steady decline in funded status since 2010, primarily due to contributions less than the actuarial recommendations. Contributions to the city's pension plan are statutorily defined and have been well below the ADC in recent years, causing further deterioration of the plans funded status. As of Jan. 1, 2010, the plan's actuarial funded ratio was 81.2%. As of the most recent actuarial valuation (Sept. 30, 2018), the plan was extremely weakly funded on a GASB basis, at 42.9%, with a net pension liability of $3.1 billion, of which 10.7% is allocable to the water and sewer fund. The city made 71% of its ADC in 2018. GASB liabilities were calculated.using a single discount rate of 7.75%, which we view as representing a target asset portfolio that contains high market risk. Aside from its pension benefits, Fort Worth provides certain OPEBs for retired employees. As of Sept. 30, 2018, the plan was 7.23% funded based on a single discount rate of 3.53%. The city discontinued OPEBs for employees hired after 2008. At Sept. 30, 2018, the citywide OPEB liability was $883 million, down from $940 million in the previous year. In December 2018, the City Council approved changes to the city's pension plan. These changes were approved by plan members in February 2019. Additionally, changes were made to the plan's actuarial assumptions in March 2019. The changes approved by members in February of this year include the elimination of cost-of-living adjustments for all service credits earned or purchased on or after July 20, 2019, and employee and employer contribution increases. These contribution changes include a fixed contribution increase, whereby the city contribution rate will rise by 4.5% in July 2019, police officer contributions will increase by 4.4% over a period of three years, firefighters will contribute 3.8% more over a period of two years, and general employees will begin contributing anywhere from 1.1% to 1.8% beginning in July 2019. Beginning in 2022, if the ADC remains in excess of actual contributions to the plan, a risk-sharing mechanism will go into effect and boost contributions further for the city and all employee groups, with a cap equal to 4% of payroll. In fiscal 2018, Fort Worth contributed 19.74% of retirement-eligible wages to the plan for general employees and firefighters, and 20.46% for police officers. With annual budgeted increases in the city's contribution rates in fiscal years 2018 and 2019 (2% total) and additional increases beginning in fiscal 2020, we still expect contributions to fall short of the ADC during the next several years, notwithstanding any other changes. As a result, the effective city contribution rate is expected to amortize the unfunded liability over an extremely extended period, as a level percentage of payroll. Payroll growth is assumed to be 3% per year. Actuarial changes were also made in March 2019 and include a reduction in the discount rate from 7.75% to 7.0% and the use of an updated mortality assumption that uses generational mortality improvements for projections. These actuarial assumptions will lilcely result in an increase in the pension liability and thus a decline in the funded ratio and an increase in the ADC beginning in fiscal 2020. Officials indicate that after these assumption changes are incorporated into the new employee and city contribution rates, but the debt will not fully amortize the pension liability within 30 years but instead within 44 after incorporating the above-mentioned rislc-sharing mechanism. Defining benefits, setting contribution rates, and funding contributions of the plan are administered by the mayor and City council. The governing body has the abiliry to alter benefits, but not increase employee contributions without a successful employee vote. Although we believe these benefit, contribution, and actuarial changes will better position www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect May 23, 2019 6 Fort Worth, Texas; CP; Water/Sewer the city to address its pension liability, we do not expect the plan's funded status to improve in the near term and we do not believe the city's contribution costs as a percentage of its total governmental expenditures will decline. It is also likely that the net pension liability will increase, lowering the funded ratio, once the 2019 pension CAFR is completed due to the recognition of updated actuarial assumptions. Despite our expectations that these metrics will not improve and will likely worsen during the outlook period, we view these changes as a positive development for the city since they provide an updated picture of the liability. Commercial paper The CP program--which does not have a separate liquidiry provider--will essentially act as bond anticipation notes to provide interim funding for identified and approved projects for the city-owned waterworks and sanitary sewer system. CP notes will carry the standard maximum maturity of 270 days, and an authorization that will allow staff to act in a manner to retire or roll over notes in whatever means reasonable and available. Because of the underlying long-term rating on the system as well as what we view as reasonable marlcet access of the city, we do not view this as introducing contingent risks to the utility system. Similarly, management expects to call outstanding notes prior to their redemption date. If the notes are not called, the interest rate would "step up" to the greater of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) index plus 300 basis points (assuming the current rating of 'AA+') or 7%; the maximum interest rate would be 10%, but that rate would also most likely also be associated with some ldnd of credit concern associated with a rating below'A-', which we currently view as remote. We understand that the city, in a worst-case scenario of marlcet disruption and insufficient available reserves in the utility fund, could resort to interfund borrowing to retire the notes. US Bank N.A, will act as the issuing and paying agent. JP Morgan Securities LLC will act as dealer. Fort Worth WS CP Short Term Rating A-1+ Affirmed Fort Worth Unenhanced Rating Long Term Rating Many issues are enhanced by bond insurance. 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STANDARD & POOR'S, S&P and RATINGSDIRECT are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. www.spglobaLcom/ratingsdirect May23,2019 S Fi1.c���_I�.�tings Fort Worth, Texas New lssue �e��r� Ratings Long Term Issuer Default Raiing New Issue �105,355,000 General Purpose Bonds, Series 2019 $8,745,000 Tax Notzs, Series 2019 Outstanding Debt General Purpose Bonds Combination Tax and Revenue Certifirates of Obligation Tax Notes , i =�;� New Issue Summary �{ Sale Date: June 11, 2019, via competitive sale. Series: $105,355,000 General Purpose Bonds, Series 2019; 58,745,000 Tax Notes, Series 2019, AA� qA� Purpose: Bonds: finance various municipal improvements. Notes: finance vehicle and equipment purchases. �+ Securiry: Limited ad valorem tax. �� Analytical Conclusion Rating Outlook Fort Worth's 'AA+' Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and limited tax obligation rating reflect Fitch Negative Ratings' expectation of strong operating performance through the economic cycle, as well as solid economic and revenue prospects. Fitch maintains the Negative Rating Outlook to analyze over the coming review cycle the impact of recent pension reforms on both expenditure flexibility and operating performance. The Fort Worth city council and city employees approved of a reform package for the city's single employer pension plan that adjusts benefits, increases both employee and city contributions and reduces a previously infinite amortization horizon to an estimated 44 years. This amortization period exceeds several state of Texas recommended maximum amortization periods and also exceeds the funding objective for the plan as outlined in the city code. Management characterizes the 2018 reforms as the latest step in the reform process. Economic Resource Base: Fort Worth is a major anchor in the Dallas-Fort Worth regional economy, with a population of nearly 875,000. The metropolitan area employment base is extensive, and while military-related spending still accounts for a significant part of the local economy, recent gains in other sectors such as services, construction, and trade have diversified the labor force. In addition, ranching, manufacturing, technology, education, and aerospace are significant components of the Fort Worth area economy and serve to diversify economic acfivity. Economic prospects for both the city and the metropolitan area as a whole are positive. Key Rating Drivers Analysts Steve Murray +1 512 215-3729 steve. murray@fitchratings-com Emmanuelle Lavvrence +1 512 2153740 emmanueile.lavrrence@fitchratings. com Revenue Framework: 'aaa' Growth prospects for revenue are strong, based on recent gains in taxable values and sales tax receipts as well as ongoing economic development. Property tax rates, while high compared to other Texas cities, have been trending downward and remain well below statutory and city charter caps. Expenditure Framework: 'aa' The natural pace of spending growth is expected to be in line with to marginally above revenue growth as service demands continue to grow. Management retains solid overall expenditure flexibility. Carrying costs are somewhat elevated for the rating level, but a descending debt service schedule should offset increasing pension contributions and keep carrying costs in check. www.fitchratings.com June 5, 2019 Fit:c��1 i�ati�� �� r s�y � i � � � . - � , �, � � i� � I . c ^, � � �: . f2ating History Long-Term Liability Burden: 'aa' outiooW The combination of overall debt and net pension liability (NPL) is moderately elevated at 18% Rating Action wacoh Date of personal income. Recent pension reforms likely will apply a modest amount of upward a,aT Affim�ed Negative 5�30/19 pressure on the overall liability total due to various assumption changes. AA+ Affirmed Negative 5(17/18 AA+ Affirmed Stable 7/30l12 O f'fatlll Pertormance: 'aaa' AA+ Affirmed Positive S/04r11 p g aa+ Revised Stable 4/30/10 The city's sound financial resilience suggests the highest level of gap-closing capacity through AA Do�vngraded Stable 8i09107 aa+ Affirmed Stabie 3(19/03 a typical business cycie. The ongoing deferral of a portion of annual pension costs, even after AA+ Upgraded — 5f23l00 incorporating the recent pension changes, weakens the budget management assessment to AA Assigned — 8l20/92 a degree. Rating Sensitivities Pension Sustainability: Recent pension reforms include more sustainable plan assumptions and call for increased contributions to the single employer plan. Continued progress toward plan sustainability and closing of the gap between actual and actuarially determined pension contributions (ADCs) could return the Rating Outlook to Stable; conversely, a widening of that gap and a material increase in the long-term liability burden lil<ely will result in a downgrade. Related Research Fitch Rates Fort Worth, TX S114PAM �T Bonds, Tax Notes'AA+', Affirms IDR; OuUook Nega6ve (May 2019) Related Criteria U.S. Public Fnance Tax-Supported Raung Criteria (Apnl 2018) Cresiit Profile The city has registered solid gains recently in employment, building permits, tax base and sales tax revenues in conjunction with overall regional economic gains. Fort Worth's population continues to grow (up more than 3% annually since 2000). In addition, the city's extra-territorial jurisdiction is sizable and provides opportunity for future annexation and growth. Management reports a number of commercial, residential and industrial projects either unden,vay or planned in the ciry. American Airlines Group, Inc, is nearing completion of its new 1.8 million square-foot corporate headquarters; AMR employs roughly 25,000 workers in the area and is the city's largest employer. The defense sector concentration in the local economy exposes local employers to periodic federal spending cutbacks. Lockheed Martin is the city's second largest employer with about 13,700 workers. Other noteworthy projects include continued expansion at Alliance Texas (a major mixed-used project with 48,000 workers), recent completion of a ne�v 25-story downtown office tower and ongoing construction of a new city-owned multi-purpose arena (completion projected for November 2019). The city continues to add to employment totals as the regional economy expands. In February 2019, the city's unemployment rate stood at 3.8%, unchanged from the prior year and below the state and national averages for the month. Taxable values have registered gains in the past eight years and the fiscal 2019 taxable valuation totals $67.8 billion, up more than 10% from the prior year. A near-record 14,000 building permits approved by the city in 2018 indicate continued near-term tax base and overall economic expansion will continue for the near term. Revenue Framework Property and sales taxes are the dominant operating revenue sources for Forth Worth, together representing more than 80% of fiscal 2018 general fund revenues. Each component has exhibited solid increases following recessionary and energy sector-related declines in the 2009-2011 period. The city's historical revenue performance over the last ten years — adjusted for tax rate changes — registered a 3.5% CAGR, generally tracking U.S. GDP growth over the same period and overcoming the collapse of natural gas prices that significantly impacted operating Fort Worth, Texas June 5, 2019 I���tch Ratings r. �' � i� �i�'E;� n revenues for several years. Given recent revenue trends and current economic activity, the expectation is that future revenue growth will continue this pattern. The positive growth prospects for the city and for the Dallas-Fort Worth region suggest continuation of recent healthy gains in economically sensitive revenues. Fort Worth sales tax collections have averaged more than 5% annual increases over the past six years. Fort Worth retains a significant margin below its statutory an� city charter property tax limitations, providing notable flexibility in terms of legal ability to increase operating revenues. Expenditure Framework As is the case with many cities, public safety is the largest general fund cost driver, representing two-thirds of fiscal 2018 spending. Culture and recreation and general government (both at 10%) were the next largest spending components. Fitch expects spending growth will largely track revenue trends over the near term, as an expanding population and area economy will generate increased service demands. Additional spending pressure also will come from pension contributions, which have fallen short of actuarially required amounts recently and will be increasing in the near term. A favorable workforce environment (in terms of contractual arrangements and management control), annual pay-go capitai spending and the city's demonstrated budgetary responsiveness underpin an overall solid expenditure flexibility profile. Carrying costs (debt service and retiree benefit contributions) have been increasing and totaled 23% in fiscal 2018 governmental spending. The increases have been driven primarily by growing ADCs, which have exceeded the actual amounts contributed in recent years. The recent pension reform package calls for additional increases in ciry contributions (in addition to larger employee contributions), but the outlays will still fall short of required amounts. Further reform measures will be necessary to close the gap between actuarial and actual contribution amounts. The city does retain some capital-related taxing margin that could be redirected to benefit contributions if necessary; a descending debt service schedule also will enable the city to absorb increasing pension costs. Long-Term Liability Burden Fort Worth's long term liability burden (overall debt and the Fitch adjusted NPL is moderately elevated at 18.5% of total personal income. The direct debt component is comprised primarily ofi tax-supported debt issued for basic infrastructure improvements; 5630 million in long term obligations are outstanding (not including the current offerings). Capital needs appear affordable, with annual borrowings planned to continue both the 2014 and 2018 GO bond authorizations. Approximately $370 million will remain in authorized but unissued debt, following the $114.2 million in sales of long-term bonds, to address needs associated with streets, parks, library, safety and other items. The city maintains a single employer pension plan for retirees, with empioyer contribution rates set by city council action. The city reported a fiscal 2018 plan total liability of �5.35 billion and assets ofi $2.27 billion, resulting in an NPL of $3.08 billion (assets covering 42% of the liability). The calculation used a 5.13% blended discount rate and projected a depletion date of around 2050. The NPL has been climbing due to weaker than expected investment performance and changed plan assumptions. The city in recent years made a number of adjustments to civil and public safety retiree benefits in an effort to shore up the plan. Beginning in 2011 these changes included increasing the retirement age, removing overtime from the compensation base and eliminating COLAs. Contribution amounts have trailed actuarial requirements over the past several years, however, Fort V�lorth, Texas 3 June 5. 201�J , -. � ,.� ,� � R.atln 'S � �'-,.... , � It�� , �` � � � � � , I �..' I j I � . �'1 � negating the benefit adjustments and resulting in the increasing NPL and infinite projected amortization period. Recognizing that more significant reforms were required to ensure the plan's sustainability, the city in 2015 appointed a pension review committee comprised of plan stakeholders and citizens. The committee proposed a series of plan changes that addressed both benefit levels and contribution amounts. The city council approved the reform package in December 2018, and after a series of informational meetings 74% of voting city employees approved the changes in early 2019. Highlights of the Reform Measure • Increased annual city contributions (from 19.74%-20.46% of pay, depending on employee group, to 24.24%-24.96%). • Increased employee contributions (from 825%-8.73% to 9.35%-13.13% over the next two years). • Elimination of COLA for future service effective 7120/2019. • Variable COLA for active eligible employees based on plan performance. • Risk sharing provision that, beginning in 2022, requires city and employee contributions to each increase by 2% annually (with a maximum 4% increase) if actual contributions fall short of the actuarially determined amounf for two consecutive years (assuming a 30-year closed amortization period and a discount rate calculated by averaging a rate provided by two independent sources). • A reduction in the plan discount rate from 7.75°/o to 7°/o. An actuarial study that includes these plan changes notes that initial contribution increases will still leave total contributions below actuarially determined amounts. As a result, the study projects the additional contributions required under the risk sharing provision will begin in 2022 and estimates an amortization period of 44 years. Acknowledging that this projected amortization period extends beyond industry norms and the plan objectives detailed in the city code, management anticipates additional plan adjustments in the future. OPEB benefits are limited to employees hired before Jan. 1, 2009, and the city has established a trust for this obligation. Assets in the trust at Sept. 30, 2097 were valued at roughly �68 million, or roughly 7% of the total OPEB liability; the net OPEB liability represents 2.4°/o of total personal income, Operating Performance Fitch expects that operating reserves will remain above leveis consistent with an 'aaa' resilience assessment level throughout a typical business cycle. For defails, see Scenario Analysis, page 6. The city contributes annuaily to pay-as-you-go capital spending (�35 million to $40 million, or about 6% of fiscal 2019 budgeted general fund spending), which the city could adjust to react to changing economic conditions or increases in pension contributions. The budget management assessment is negatively affected by continued funding of the city's pension obligation below the ADC. The fiscal 2018 contribution of $93.5 million was $38.2 million (or nearly 3% of governmental spending) below the ADC. The projected fiscal 2019 contribution of $119 million will also fali short of the $152 million ADC. Current projections include steadily increasing annual contribution totals over the next decade. Fiscal 2018 general fund results included a$17.3 million surplus after transfers, increasing the unrestricted fund balance to more than 5137 million or 21% of spending. Management currently Fort Worth, Te;�as 4 June 5, 201�J f ��itc,hRa�iz�.gs �a Fort Worth, Texas .hine 5 701. is projecting another positive general fund result for fiscal 2019. Tax revenues and expenditures reportedly are both outperforming original budget projections, contributing to an expected S5 million surplus after transfers at year-end. � . . ',.� �F�t;c��� I�atli� s , �.�__�_ �- � �z . � �; � � Fort Worth (TX) Scenario Analysis Reserve SaFety Margin in an Unaddressed Siress s.oss o.oss zoi2 '�C[U3� � $C£112f10 Fitch expec`� that operating reserves will remain above levels consistent v�ith an 'aaa' resilience assessment level throuehout a typical business cycle. The city has demonstrated an ability and willingness to reduce spending during a downtum, and retains a number of budgetary tools to respond to changing 'emnomic ronditions and to maintain reserves comfortably above the policy minimum of 1D;6 0� spending. GDP�L�umpuon(SSChange) (1.0:_) 0.55� 2.055 Erpendture A<_<_ump[ion (So ChangeJ 2.0;6 2.0°S 2.OiS Rev2nue Outpu[ (� ChangeJ (2.2b) 0.8:5 3J5, Inherent Budget Flexihili.y Superior — - — �� i i i � i i .� Total Revenues 500,193 509,205 514,037 542,710 569,916 596,168 634,373 6Z0,637 625,295 E4[i,223 °� Change in Revenues - 1.3� SJ% 4.956 5.035 s'.6°5 6.4% (2.25j 0.8;6 3J% Total Expenditures 534,794 557,707 553,593 549,049 565,732 590,546 615,266 627,571 fi?0,123 652,925 � Change in Expendiwres - 43io (0,756} (o.s;by 3.0�. 4.496 4.2Y 2.ose 2.0� 2.0:3 TransFers In an�i Other Sources 55,263 58,535 58,512 63,758 42,554 57,523 50,465 49,372 49,743 51,567 TransfersOutandOtherU3es 15,9�1 17,224 95,244 23,930 39,373 59,622 52,325 53,372 5".,439 55,528 PletTranifers 39,419 41,411 (39,732) 4=1,853 3,176 j2,094} (1,SE0) (�,D00) (4,696) (3,961j Bond Proceeds and Other On�-rme Uses - - - - - - _ _ _ _ Met Opera[ing Surpius(+)/Deficit(-) AfCerTran3fers Net Opera[ing Surplus(+)/Deficit(-) {%of EKpend. and TransFers Ou[} Unrestricted/Unrz,erved Fund Balance (General Fund) OtherAvailable Funds (GF+Non-GF) Com6ined Avails6le Funds Balanre (GF = O[her Avall2ble Funcls) Coin6ined Availa�le Fund 8a1. (%of Expend. an�i Tramfers Out) 4,313 (7,090) (75,393) 33,519 7,360 3,523 27,252 (10,93d) (19,521) (3,658) 0.95� (1.2°�} (11.696) 6.75� 1.25� O.SSS 2.65� (F.6S) (2.Si;) (1.2'b) 154,730 1A0,565 77,317 106,981 9I,360 122,61D 137,177 126,243 100,723 98,065 154,730 140,565 77,817 106,981 91,360 122,610 137,177 126.243 106,723 98,Oo5 23.19� 24.SS6 11.946 18.7 0 15,145 18.9% 20.5 a 18.575 15.4s'L 13.6i5 Reserve5afetyMargin (aaaJ 34JS� 173S� 10.8°� 65 � 43',5 Reserve Safety Margin (aaJ 26,0% 13.0% 3JS5 5.456 3.2� � Reserve Safety Nlcrgin (aJ 17356 8.7S5 S.4 � 3.255 2.2Y Reserve Safety Margin (bbbJ 6.555 4396 3.2°� 2.29; 2,056 No[es: Scenario analysis repre,en[s an unad�ressed stress on issuer finances. Ftch's downturn scenario 2ssumes a-1.055 GDP decline in the first year, followed 6y 0.5%and 2.OS6 GDP grow[h in Years 2 anU 3, respectively. E�entlitures arz assumed to grow at a 2.096 rate of in(lation. Inher2n[ hud;et fle+tihilfry is the anaryst's ass2ssmznt of the issuer's af�i�iry to deal with fiscai stress through tax 2nd spending policy chol[es, and determines the multiples used to [alculate the reserve saferymargin. For funher details, please see F[th's US Tax-Supported Rating Criteria. Fort Worth, Texas � June 5, 2019 2013 2014 2015 ?016 2017 2019 Yearl Year2 'lear3 Finan[ial Resilience Su6factorAssessment: �AvailaBla Fund a3lanco - �6hb —a —aa —a2a I . �.�;11:1�5 The ratings above were solicited and assigned or maintained at the request of the rated entity/Issuer or a related third party. Any exceptions follow below. ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUB,JECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAItitERS PLEASE READ THESE LIN11TAllONS AND DISCLAItiIERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK HTTPSI/FITCHRATINGS.COR4UNDERSTANDINGCREDITR.4TINGS. INADDITION, RAl1NG DEFINITIONSAPID THE TERNIS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEB SI7E AT W�MN.FITCHRATINGS.COM. 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Fitch Austr�lia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which aufhorizes it to provide credit rafings to wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persoru who are retail Gients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001. Fort �Vorth, Texas .i���P � �n�n Titclll�.atl��gs Fort Worth, Texas Water and Sewer System Revenue Bonds hlew Issue Report Ratings New Issue Water and Sewer System Revenue Bonds, Series 2019 Outstanding Debt Water and Sewer System Revenue Bonds Rating Outlook Stable C' � � ' �-�� I I� I� I'') L�, �'' New Issue Details Sale Information: Approximately $96,090,000 Water and Sewer System Revenue Bonds, Series 2019, to sell June 11 competitively. Security: First lien on the net revenues of the combined water and sewer system including any additional pledged revenues. Pledged revenues exclude impact fees. The series 2019 bonds will not be secured by debt service reserve fund. Purpose: To fund improvements and extensions to the system and pay costs of issuance. Final Maturity: Feb. 15, 2049. Key Rating Drivers AA AA Stable Financial Performance; Improving Liquidity: Fitch Ratings-calculated all-in debt service coverage (DSC) has averaged 1.9x over the past three years and cash balances continue to gradually improve. Continued planned rates adjustments, along with adopted financial policies related to cash balances should result in improving liquidity and stable DSC over the coming five years. Related Research Average Direct Debt: Direct system debt levels are comparable to similarly rated credits and overall system leverage, as measured by debt to funds available for debt service (FADS), has 2019 Water and Sewer Medians (November2018) trended down since 2013. Leverage is anticipated to remain relatively stable despite plans for 2019 Outlook: Water and Sewer sector additional debt over the next five years to support capital spending. (December 2018) Increased Capital Spending: The current capital improvement plan (CIP) totals about $1.1 billion and is primarily focused on wastewater system upgrades, including the upgrade of the city's Village Creek Reclamation Facility, and an additional plant in the out-years of the plan. Sound Revenue Defensibility: Despite continued rate adjustments, system rates remain affordable and retain flexibility. The system's rate structure provides for over 25% of cost recovery through a fixed base rate. Planned increases over the next five years moderately grow the user charges. The currently affordable rates, coupled with expectations for gradually increasing MHI, should provide continued rate flexibility to handle future adjustments. Analysts Teri Wenck, CPA +1 512 215-3742 teri.wenck@fitchratings.com Steve Murray +1 512 215-3729 steve.murray@fitchratings.wm Wholesaler Pressures: Fort Worth's (the city) reliance on wholesale providers creates cost pressures outside of the utility's direct control. System debt levels are elevated when taking into account off-balance sheet debt of its wholesale providers Tarrant Regional Water District (the district) and Trinity River Authority (the authority). Large And Diverse Service Area: Fort Worth is a major anchor in the Dallas-Fort Worth regional economy, with a population of roughly 6.5 million. The system continues to experience moderate growth in its customer base. Rating Sensitivities Timely Rate Recovery; Leverage: Maintenance of adequate debt service coverage and liquidity levels will continue to be a key rating consideration as the city of Fort Worth water and sewer system funds planned capital needs. Failure to increase rates to support additional debt carrying cost could pressure the rating. Conversely, continued improvement of leverage over time could result in positive rating momentum. www.fitchratings.com June 3, 2019 �— �. . , �Ztchl�ating� �: � — _ ;+.J�.+� _'� �-'�,!�.iii� �� �atirng �lisfory outlook/ Rating Action Watch AA Affirmed Stable AA Affirmed Stable AA Affirmed Stable AA Affirmed Stable AA Affirmed Stable AA Affirmed Stable AA Downgraded Stable qq+ Affirmed Sfable AA+ Affirmed Stable AA+ Revised Stable AA Affirmed Stable AA Downgraded Stable qq+ Upgraded Stable AA Assigned — City financial projections through fiscal 2024, which exclude connection fees and all noncash expenses, point to all-in DSC around 1.8x. The forecast assumes additional annual rate increases and accounts for increased debt service costs from current and planned debt issuances. Management has expressed its commitment to maintaining all-in coverage at its policy of 1.5x or above before transfers by adjusting rates as needed. All Water Sold by Category 2018 Wastewater Sales by Customer Class (Million Gallons) i20� $) ����������.. Indust 5 °/a �ard Meters �o�a Residential 32% Commercial 19% Credifi �rrofile Dafe The system provides retail service to the city and a portion of the surrounding area through sizsi�s over 250,000 separate user accounts. In addition, the system provides wholesale water and 5/17/18 s���i�� sewer treatment to numerous surrounding communities for a total service area population of 7/15/15 over 1.2 million. The system continues to record steady customer growth, averaging almost 2% �iz�i�a annually over the past five years. With an estimated 2017 population of over 874,000, 4/10/13 Fort Worth's population continues to grow. The city's extraterritorial jurisdiction is also sizable 8/1 /12 aiai�i and provides opportunity for future annexation and growth. 4/30/11 4/21/10 8/9/07 Steady Financial Metrics 10l6100 1/9(96 Financial results for the past three years are stable with Fitch-calculated DSC averaging a solid 2.Ox. Fitch calculated liquidity registers just under 140 DCOH for fiscal 2018, and has grown year over year since 2015. The city adopted formal policies in 2015 relating to minimum cash balances, which targets cash balances of no less than 62 DCOH with a goal of 250 DCOH. This policy will help ensure cash balances remain stable. Related Criteria Public-Sector, Revenue-Supported Entities Rating Criteria (May 2019) U.S. Water and Sewer Rating Criteria (November 2018) Source: City of Fort Worth 2018 disclosure document. All-in Debt Service Coverage (City versus Median) � Fort Worth W&S All-in DSC 'AA' National Fitch Median DSC (x) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 o. o 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Note: Median year reflect the prior fiscal year results. Source: Fitch Ratings. Effluent Municipafities 2% 17% Residential Industrial ' ' - 46% (Includes Monitored) 2% Commercial (Includes Monitored) 33% Source: City of Fort Worth 2018 disclosure document. Days Cash on Hand (City versus Median) � Forl Worth W&S Days Cash on Hand 'AA' National Fitch Median Days Cash on Hand (Days) 700 ; _ _ ._ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ 600 � __.....__— 500 __............ _ .. ... . . . .. 400 300 200 ,00'■ ■ ■ ■ ■ 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Note: Median year reflect the prior fiscal year results. Source: Fitch Raiings. Fort Worth, Texas 2 Fitc.�_ii.ati��g� � � � .. � , �; , ��;��; , �� -_, Fort Worth Five-Year CIP Comparison �$oao� 1,200 . . _. .. _ ... ... ._ __. . . .. _ ._.. ..... _ _ . ..._ ._. _ _._ . .. . . . . . .___ . i 922.47 974.92 1,000.39 1,000 . _- _ _.... . _._ _.... ..___.----- . ._.. 800 I. 725.59 _ _ 600 400 i 200 0 Debt/Funds Available for Debt Service (x) __. � 5.40 . 5.20 5.0 , _._ . ..._ . 4.10 4.0 -- -- 3.0 . — - - z.o �.o ' o.o Fort Worth, Fort Worth, 'AA' TX W&S TX W&S National 2017 2018 Fitch Median 2019 Source: Fitch Ratings. . . ..._ __ _.. 1.081.05 2016-2020 2017-2021 2018-2022 2019-2023 2020-2024 Source: City of Fort Worth. Increasing Capital Spending The system's fiscal years 2020-2024 CIP totals almost $1.1 billion, up 8% from the prior year's CIP. Starting with the fiscal years 2017-2021 CIP, the system accelerated several sewer projects due to development of the Tarleton State University — Fort Worth Campus along with growth in other areas. The current plan continues to focus on updates and improvements to the city's sewer system. The plan will be about 50°/o debt supported and 50% restricted reserve for capital projects and cash from operations. Existing debt ratios compare favorably to Fitch's 'AA' medians. Fiscal 2018 debt to net plant is 32% compared to Fitch's `AA' rating category median of 46% and debt to FADS 4.1x, stronger than Fitch's 'AA' median of 5.2x. System leverage is expected to grow modestly with the inclusion of planned debt financings for CIP. Direct debt levels are projected to increase with debt per customer expected to grow to over $2,000, elevated compared to Fitch's 'AA' median of $1,673. The system's debt structure also includes a$150 million commercial paper (CP) program utilized for appropriation authority. There is currently nothing outstanding on the CP line. Solid Rate Flexibility; Tempered Rate Increases The combined water and sewer monthly bill of just over $74, assuming usage of 10 hundred cubic feet (cc� per month for water and eight ccf per month for sewer, equals an affordable 1.5°/o of MHI, providing the system sufficient rate flexibility. City council has typically adjusted rates when necessary, and it will be important that this continue in order to keep purchased water costs from eroding financial performance and to ensure adequate funding of capital. Since 2014, the city has been restructuring its own rates by shifting a greater portion of its volumetric water charges to fixed charges, which Fitch views positively, as it reduces revenue variability. Fixed charges currently comprise about 25% of the combined water and sewer bill. For fiscal 2019, the city did not adopt rate increases providing a rate holiday following several years of rate adjustments. Anticipated annual rate adjustments are expected to resume in 2020 through 2024 and anticipated to be no larger than 5%. Continued implementation of rate increases should ensure consistent financial metrics, while continuing to support increased debt carrying costs, higher water purchase costs and system maintenance. Water Supply and Declining Wholesale Provider Rates The city has its own water treatment facilities and purchases raw water supplies on a wholesale basis from the district. The majority of sewer flows are treated at the city's owned Fort Worth, Texas g .liina 3 9f11A I , ,, t'r'_t f -- FitchRatin 'A7 . � I' o- � { ! •,-� � �� f and operated sewer facility, but a small portion are treated at authority sewer treatment plants. Total costs for purchased water and sewer treatment from the district and the authority equaled 28% and 4% of operating expenses, respectively, in fiscal 2018 and are paid prior to debt service on the bonds. Fort Worth is the districYs largest customer, accounting for over 60% of the districYs sales. The district's debt burden has grown due to investment in the integrated pipeline project (IPL), which is expected to provide water through at least 2040. District debt doubled from 2010 to 2015 and additional debt is planned through 2022, translating into higher purchased water costs for the city. As the district moves through its capital expansion cycles, rate adjustments have been necessary to support rising wholesale pass-through costs. Following several years of above-average increased purchased water costs, the city's purchased water costs saw a small decline in fiscal 2018. Purchased wholesale costs comprise about 30% of the city's operating expenses. Sound Economic Fundamentals The metropolitan area employment base is extensive. While military-related spending still accounts for an estimated one-quarter of the economy, recent gains in other sectors, such as services, construction and trade have helped diversify the labor force. For March 2019, the city's unemployment stood at 3.8%, unchanged from the prior year and is largely on par with the state and nation. City wealth levels are on par with the state and national averages, showing some gradual improvement since 2013. The poverty rate is elevated at 16.9°/o compared to the national average of 14.6%. Goven�nts Security: The outstanding bonds are secured by and payable from a first lien on the net revenues of the system including any additional pledged revenues. Revenues exclude impact fees. Rate Covenant: Rates and charges must provide sufficient revenues to pay operating and debt service expenses and all other system financial obligations. Additional Bonds Test: Additional bonds may be issued if net revenues for either the preceding fiscal year or any consecutive 12 months ending no more than 90 days before the issuance of parity debt equal at least 1.25x pro forma average ADS and 1.10x pro forma MADS. Debt Service Reserve Fund: The city reserves the right to establish and fund a reserve fund for the benefit of the owners and holders of the parity bonds. No reserve fund has been funded for the series 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 bonds. The required reserve amount for prior senior lien debt issuances is funded with Ambac and AGM surety policies. Flow of Funds: Revenues to meet system obligations are distributed in the following order of priority: • operating expenses; • debt service fund; and • reserve fund, if necessary. Fort Worth, Texas 4 �.._� � ��, � �,i1;chRati���,s � � � I . '�.. I c�. l' I I ''_ \. �l Financial �umrnary ($000, Audited Years Ended Sept. 30) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Balance Sheet Unrestricted Cash and Inveslments 61,929 68,451 81,786 93,996 110,312 OtherUnrestrictedCurrentAssets 53,651 68,146 57,422 53,107 56,280 Current Liabilities Payable from Unrestricted Assets (79,826) (80,946) (81,559) (78,629) (79,881) Net Working Capital 35,754 55,651 57,649 68,474 86,711 Net Fixed Assets 2,382,996 2,438,881 2,463,215 2,559,102 2,646,586 Long-Term DebtOutstanding 855,745 837,749 831,583 870,675 854,089 Operatinc� Statement Operating Revenues Non-Operating Revenues Available for Debt Service Connection Fees Total Revenues Availahle for Debt Service Operating Expenditures (Excluding Deprecialion) Depreciation Net Revenues Available for Debt Service Senior Lien ADS All-In ADS 361,979 2,681 10,227 374,F387 226,719 67,254 148,168 76,253 91,351 389,205 2,020 23,314 414,539 253,114 67,311 161,425 83,807 95, 256 Financial Statistics Sr. Lien DSC 1.9 1.9 Sr. ADS (Excluding Connection Fees) �.g �.7 All-In ADS i,g � � All-In ADS (Excluding BABs/RZED Bonds Subsidy) 1,6 1.7 Days Cash on Hand 100 99 DebUNel Plant (%) 36 34 Outstanding Long-Term Debt Per Customer ($) 1,864 1,795 Outstanding Long-Term Debt Per Capita ($) 732 710 Free Cash/Depreciation (%) 53 61 Note: Fitch may have reclassified certain financial statement items for analytical purposes. N.A. - Not available. Source: Fitch Ratings, Fitch Solutions, Fort Worth. Fort Worth, Texas June 3, 2019 417,299 2,170 12,129 431,598 269,704 71,656 161,894 80,251 90,487 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 111 34 1,761 679 63 425,615 1,906 15,136 442,657 280,923 73,756 161,734 86,615 92, 571 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 122 34 1,799 690 62 46fi,171 5,378 26,076 499,625 291, 274 75,238 208,351 85,780 94,714 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.2 138 32 1,718 673 117 5 ;� :� .,. �- - . . T1tchRat�ngs �,_ _,-�_ ,_ _ , _ -� ��j.,�o�f'�:;c: The ratings above were solicited and assigned or maintained at the request of the rated entity/Issuer or a related third party. Any exceptions follow below. ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTPS://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEB SITE AT V�MM/.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND MErHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECT�ON OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTI7Y CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE. Copyright O 2019 by Fitch Ratings, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1-800-753�824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. AII rights reserved. in issuing and maintaining its ratings and in making other reports (including forecast information), Fitch relies on factual information it receives from issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible. Fitch conducts a reasonable investigation of the facival information relied upon by it in accorcJance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that information from independent sources, to the e�ent such soum.es are available for a given security or in a given jurisdicfion. The manner of Fitch's factual investigation and the scope of the third-pariy verification it obtains will vary depending on the nature of the rated security and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated securily is offered and sold and/or ihe issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant public information, access to the management of ihe issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals, aduarial reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by thircl parties, the availability of independent and competent third-parly verification sources with respect to the particular securiiy or in the particularjurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of otherfactors. 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Due to ihe rela6ve efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to ihree days earlier lhan to print subscribers. For Australia, New Zealand, Ta'nNan and South Korea only: Fitch Australia Pty Ltd holds an Australian financial services license (AFS license no. 337123) which authorizes it to provide credit ratings to wholesale clients only. Credit ratings information published by Fitch is not intended to be used by persons who are retail clients within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001. Fort Worth, Texas June 3. 2019 U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE SECTOR COMMENT 30 May 2019 �r/ Rate this Research Analyst Contacts Gera M. McGuire +1.214.979.6850 VP-Sr Credit Of ficer/Nianager gera. mc�u i re@m oodys.com Local government — Texas Property tax reform limits revenue�raising ability, a credit negative for bulk of local governments On May 25, the Texas (Aaa stable) legislature passed property tax reform legislation (Senate Bill 2) that further limits most local governments' ability to raise revenue, a credit negative. The governor is expected to sign the bill into faw, which wou(d then take effect on January 1, 2020. Brett Adelglass +1.214.979.6866 The bill reduces property tax revenue increases without voter approval to 3.5% ff01Y1 8% AssociateLeadAnalyst annually on existing properties (new construction is exduded from the limit). Voterapproval brett.adelglass@moodys.com to override the limitation requires a simple majority. The restriction applies to the portion Alexandra 5. Parl<er +1.212.553.4889 of municipal revenue used for government operations; it does not restrict revenue for debt l�ID-PublicFinance service. The legislation offers some flexibility by allowing locaf governments to "bank" up to alexandra.parker@moodys.com three years of unused margin for an increase greater than 3.5% in a year. CLIENT SERVICES Americas Asia Pacific Japan EMEA 1-212-553-1653 852-3551-3077 81-3-5408-4100 44-ZO-7772-5454 The measure lowers the limit for cities, counties, municipal utility districts (MUDs) and other entities that can levy a property tax, but the limit will remain at 8°/o for community college and hospital districts. At the same time, the bill reduces the number of signatures required to petition a rollback in the event the 8% limit is exceeded by the districts. Sma�l local governments can increase their operational levy up to $500,000 as long as the amount does not equate to more than an 8°/o revenue increase derived from existing property. If the amount is above that limit, only 3% of voters are required to initiate a rolfback election under Senate Bill 2, down from 7% or 10%. Under separate legislation, also expected to be signed by the governor, school districts would have to reduce tax rates if property value growth exceeds 2.5% in fiscal 2021. With Senate Bill z set to take effect in fiscal 2021, local governments have time to adjust budgets, though most have already begun to prepare. The bill will mostly affect budgets that take effect in August and September af 2020. The bill also aims to increase transparency by creating an online database that defines, simplifies and highlights proposed levy changes and provides for immediate citizen input with an online comment form and information on when public hearings will be held. Revenue-raising ability to pay debt service not affected by legislation Limitations on revenue-raising restrict financial flexibility, hampering credit quality. However, Senate Bill 2 does not hinder the ability to raise revenue to pay debt service. MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE In Texas, property taxes are set based on two legal�y separate rates that combine to form an overa�l governmental unit's levy: an "operational rate," which is subject to the revenue limit in Senate Bill 2, and a"debt service rate," which is not subject to the limit. Expenditures using funds raised under the debt service rate are defined by statute and approved and enforced by the attorney general. Revenue raised under this rate cannot be used for operational expenditures. Given that the debt service levy is legally separate from the amount restricted under the 3.5% Senate Bill z limit, local governments will maintain direct control over the rate necessary to service debt. In Texas, most school and municipal utility debt carries a general obligation unlimited tax (GOULT) pledge; most city and county debt has a general obligation limited tax (GOLT) pledge. Homeowner savings minimal, but budgetary impact on governmants would be significant The new legislation stands to reduce individual tax burdens minimally but hurt local governments substantially. The median home price in Texas is $150,000; the median operational tax rate is $4.30 per $1,000 of assessed value. An 8% increase in the revenue would lead to the owner of a$150,000 home paying $696.60, assuming the rate in the previous tax year was $4.30. Under the 3.5% limitation in Senate Bill 2, the homeowner would pay slightly less at no more than $667.58 — a difference of only $29.00. Under that scenario, the homeowner's cumulative savings over 10 years would be just $2,260 (see Exhibit). For a local government with property tax operating revenues of $25 million, however, the difference between a 3.5% increase annually versus an 8% increase would translate to a cumulative 10-year loss of over three times the current year's revenues. More specifically, the 3.5% restriction would result in an $87.6 mil�ion loss in potential property tax collections over 10 years. However, the short-term impact would be much less dramatic. In the first year with municipal revenue increases subject to the 3.5% limit, the reduction in potential revenues would be only $1.1 mil�ion. Senate Bill 2 provides homeowners with marginal property tax relief, while limiting local governments ability to raise revenue 5100 S90 580 S70 S60 550 S40 530 S20 $10 S- Cumulalive losl property lax revenue for local govemmenl (lel axis) � Cumulative homeowner savings (nghl axis) � 51,000 5500 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Taz year S2,500 52,000 51,500 Source: Moody's Mvestors Service Economic slowdown would magnify impact of Senate Bill 2 Texas cities have relatively high debt burdens compared with their national peers — 2.0% vs.1.1%, respectively, for Moody's-rated cities. Senate Bill 2 stands to increase debt burdens if reduced excess tax revenue forces cities to use the capital markets more frequently to address infrastructure needs versus the cash funding that traditionally has offset rising debt burdens. If debt ratios rise while tackling capital needs, a prolonged economic slowdown and escalating debt service schedule could reduce a government's political will to increase taxes. As a result, a government may be forced to tap dwindling reserves or cut services, leading to considerab�e credit challenges. Despite the limitations in Senate Bill 2, most local governments in Texas will continue to benefit from new investment resulting in taxable property not subject to the 3.5% revenue-increase limit. However, if the economy cools significantly, the restriction would This pubfication does not announce a credit rating action For any uedit ratings referenczd in this publication, please see the ratings tab on [hz issueNentity pa;e on w�n�w.moodys.com fo� the most updated credit ra[ing action inFormation and ratin; history. 2 30 May 2019 Local aovernment - Terar Prnnartv hav rnfnrm limftc ro"an��o_r����.,� �ti�rr„ � �.ede. ..e�.�t�„e Fn. 6�JL ..t I,..�I ..................�. MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE become much more of a burden. For example, cities that face rising pension liabilities, debt service payments and other necessary operational costs, such as emergency response employees, would likely have fewer expenditure-cutting options. 3 30 May 2019 Lo[al eovernment - Taxac Prnnarry raY raf��m i�,,,tro �o„e.,��o_r���:..,. ��.�r.,, .,.,.e:. .,.,.....:.... c... �...u. _� �-"' -""'----`- IMOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE ��� 201a pqoody's Corporation, 1�ioody's Im!estors 52n�ice, Inc., Moody's Analytir.s, Inc. and/or their licensorc ii��J �ffiliates (r.olfer.tivefy, "MOODY'S"). All ri;ht� reserved. CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED 6`! MOODI"5 INVESTORS SERVIC[, NC. 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Therefore, credit rating; assigned by NISfJ arz Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSFO Credit Ra[ings are assigned by an entity that ii not a NkSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualih� for certain rypes of treatment under U.S. la�vs. i�1JKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies regisrered �vith the Japan Financial Services A;ency and their registra[ion numbers are FS.4 Commi;sioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 reipectivzly. MJkK or bISfJ {as applicab(e) hereby di;dose that most issuer of debt searities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debenturzs, no[es and commercial paper) a�d preferred stock rated by PiJKK or P15FJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignmen[ oFany rating, agrezd ro pay to MJKY.' or MSFJ (as applirablzJ fur ra[ings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging From JPY125,OOp ro appror.ima[ely�PY250,000,000. MJKK anA P15fJ also maintain poficies and procedures ro address Japanese regulatory requirements. REPORT NUMBER 1'178257 �d" MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE aan ni,� �ma � ,.,,� ..................« T...,.... �....._....._.. --°--_ �._.._ __..--�- --'--- -�.�_.. .._ . - •._ . . „ .. .